Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 132325
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
525 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...

An area of snow associated with an area of low level convergence
is pushing south through the Milwaukee metro at this hour. Snow
amounts won`t be terribly high with this--likely no more than a
half to one inch--but the timing will pose challenges given the
evening commute.

Short term model guidance is in decent agreement in bringing a
narrow band of lake effect snow into the lakeshore counties
later tonight. A quick half inch will be possible. Will hold off
on canceling the Winter Weather Advisory for Sheboygan County
until any lake effect works its way through.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

An area of snow is pushing south through the MKE and ENW
terminals at this hour. Reductions in visibility are expected as
it moves through. Later this evening, a narrow band of lake effect
snow may form and briefly impact MKE and perhaps ENW. Further
west at UES and MSN, light snow will be possible for a few more
hours, but minimal impact is expected.

Northwest winds will remain gusty this evening, with a few gusts
pushing 30KT at times. Winds will start to settle down later
tonight as the surface low pulls east of the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 141 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Moderate

Surface low is moving across southeast WI. It is providing
additional lift to create scattered snow showers with visibility
down to 1/2 to 1 mile in parts of eastern WI. Back edge of precip
is steadily approaching south-central WI. Expect accumulations of
a few tenth of an inch for most of southern WI. There is a lake
enhanced snow band impacting Manitowoc that has brought a few
inches of snow and very low visibility. As the surface low shifts
southeast, this band may move into the Sheboygan area, dropping
1-2 inches this afternoon. Then as winds turn more northeast this
evening there is potential for a quick moving lake effect band to
slide southward down the lakeshore counties bringing light
accumulations.

North winds winds will be gusty this evening behind the low. They
will wind down later tonight as the surface low pulls further
away. Clouds will become more scattered across the eastern area,
allowing temperatures to drop into the upper single digits where
there is clearing.

Thursday through Friday - Confidence...Medium
Mid level flow remains cyclonic with a decent shortwave riding
through Thursday night. Subsequent surface cyclogenesis takes
shape east of Lake Superior Thursday night into Friday. The
pattern suggests some snow showers or flurries from later Thursday
into possibly Friday morning.

Friday night through Saturday night - Confidence...Medium
Weak ridging briefly settles in Friday night though rather quickly
we see some 850 WAA/isentropic ascent take hold and this develops
a narrow area of some light snow associated with this forcing. A
surface low will be evolving across the central and southern
Plains. The better forcing pushes north Saturday night with model
qpf showing a push to the north as well.

Sunday through Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Will need to watch some energy riding northeast from the central
Plains. At this time it looks like the bulk of this will be
staying to our southeast but the ECMWF/GEM solutions account for
some of the blended POPS in the grids. Overall the GFS is real
quiet this period. The next feature would be a cold front swinging
through Tuesday which puts an end to some relatively milder
conditions that had set up Sunday and Monday.

MARINE...Small craft level winds and waves will continue through
Thursday morning. Winds will become north this evening.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ052.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Thursday Night through Wednesday...99



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