Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 271657
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR conditions expected this period as dry
surface high builds towards Lake Superior. A gusty northeast wind
will prevail esp closer to Lake Michigan. Quiet and dry regime
lasts into Friday as the influence of the high holds sway.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 917 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017)

MARINE...North to northeast winds gradually increasing. Already
received a report of 2 foot waves from 1nm east of Sheboygan, so
the trend of building waves has been established. All in all going
small craft advisory looks good.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 656 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017)

UPDATE...

Will let the dense fog advisory expire at 7 am.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected to rise to MVFR mid morning.
develop early this morning.

VFR conditions should return by afternoon, as northeast winds
increase and bring drier air into the area. Gusty northeast winds
are expected near Lake Michigan this afternoon and evening, with
gusts around 20 knots.

An area of stratocumulus will affect mainly north areas this
evening, along with isolated showers, as an upper level shortwave
moves across the Lake Superior area.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 250 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

Dense fog will be an issue early this morning behind the cold
front as skies briefly clear and dew points initially remain
high. Drier air will then work its way in, with clouds scattering
out and the visibilities improving from the north later this
morning. Will issue a Dense fog advisory, but this may need to be
trimmed as the dry air moves in.

An upper level shortwave will move across the lake Superior area
tonight, Most of the showers from this will be to our north, but a
a few showers could brush the Dells to Fond du lac area, as
forecast sounding do show a shallow layer of moisture below an
inversion around 700 mb this evening.

Surface high pressure will then build across Minnesota and
northern Wisconsin, with increasing northeast winds across
southeast Wisconsin, especially near Lake Michigan.

LONG TERM...

Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure will control the weather pattern for Friday and the
weekend. Expect plenty of sunshine to go along with near normal
temperatures.

Monday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

High pressure will hang on into early next week. Models have
backed off the wave that was expected on Monday, with a stronger
surface high keeping the area dry. Precipitable water values do
increase by Wednesday ahead of a stronger approaching wave. Could
see some shower/storm activity mid-week, but kept precip chances
on the low end due to model differences that far out in the
forecast.

Temps for the first half of next week should remain right around
normal values as we transition from July to August.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

IFR/LIFR ceilings and VSBYS are expected to continue to develop
early this morning.

Still a small chance of showers early this morning with the cold
front exiting the far southeast.

MVFR/VFR conditions should return by middle to late morning, as
northeast winds increase and bring drier air into the area. Gusty
northeast winds are expected near Lake Michigan Thursday afternoon
and evening, with gusts up to 20 knots possible.

Ceilings should gradually mix out by later in the day and into
Thursday night.

MARINE...

Gusty northeast winds and building waves are expected late this
morning and afternoon into tonight. Frequent gusts to 25 knots
are forecast, along with waves building to 3 to 6 feet. Winds and
waves will remain elevated Friday morning, then increase again
Friday afternoon into Friday night. A rather long duration Small
Craft Advisory will go into effect later this morning and
afternoon.

BEACHES...

Gusty northeast winds and building waves are expected along the
beaches of Lake Michigan this afternoon and night. This should
bring high swim risk conditions during this time. A Beach Hazards
Statement will be issued for this afternoon into Friday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for WIZ066-071-
     072.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for WIZ052-060.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Saturday for LMZ645-646.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Friday night for LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Hentz
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...DDV



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