Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMKX 011642 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1042 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME BREAKS WITH THE THIN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/RAP SUPPORT CONTINUED STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT LATER TONIGHT. ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE TO KEEP SCATTERED FLURRIES
GOING MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY EXTEND THROUGH PARTS
OF THE EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

ANY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ALSO MOVING THROUGH. VISIBILITIES SHOULD
ALSO BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
WITH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER WEST TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE. THEY WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF
SRN WI WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR ERN WI. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
SNOW. THE STRATUS AND FLURRIES SHOULD MAKE IT TO LAKE MI BY 5 AM.
INTERMITTENT VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MT MOVES TO THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z MON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN
DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI THIS EVENING. THE COLD AND DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL CLEAR THE SKIES WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS.

MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI MONDAY LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
WI ON TUESDAY. RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN WI ON TUESDAY AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. THERE ARE STILL
SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT.

THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION... SO LESS CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN SOUTHEAST WI. GIVEN THE GFS AND NAM STILL SHOWING THAT WARM
LAYER GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST WI FOR A SHORT TIME TUE AFTERNOON... I
KEPT THE SNOW/SLEET MENTION THERE. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE RATHER LOW
WHICH WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE 2 TO 4
INCHES TOTAL... WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING DURING TUESDAY MORNING
RUSH HOUR.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TUE EVENING AS THE SNOW
ENDS. BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THEN CALM
DOWN AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD DIVE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO AGAIN WED NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER MILDER AIR BACK
INTO WI ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...INTERMITTENT VERY LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FOG WILL DROP VSBYS
MAINLY TO 3-5SM THIS AM. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 600 FEET TO 2500 FEET
THIS AM...RISING TO 2000-3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS EVENING AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.