Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 270143
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
843 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ARE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE. OTHERWISE VERY QUIET TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST DUE TO CONVECTION OVER NRN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KTS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. KEPT
SOME LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THROUGH TOMORROW...AS
BOUNDARY OF HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS IN THAT AREA. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN THIS
REGION. SOUNDINGS LOOKS GENERALLY UNCAPPED...JUST A MATTER ON
WHETHER THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER. NOT SEEING MUCH TO LATCH ON
TO AT THIS POINT.

DID NOT GO AS HIGH WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS 925 MB TEMPS WOULD
SUGGEST...AS CONCERNED THAT CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT HEATING ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SOUTH TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST BAND IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE NOSING UP INTO. THE 26.12Z NAM IS
WAY TO HIGH ON THE 0-3KM MUCAPE THAT IT DEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT...3000 J/KG...WHILE THE 26.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE MORE REALISTIC
AT ABOUT 1000 J/KG ALONG A STRIP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
GOING SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EXPECT THAT IF ANY
CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THAT IT WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
GRADIENT OF THE INSTABILITY AS THE LLJ KICKS IN. LITTLE TO NO
0-6KM SHEAR APPEARS TO BE PRESENT...SO ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
ON THE UNORGANIZED SIDE AND PULSEY.

THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS THIS WEEK APPEARS TO BE ON
TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND WHETHER THAT WILL KEEP THEM TEMPERED A BIT. STILL
SHOULD SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90 TO 100F RANGE...BUT
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUSH FOR AN ADVISORY...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
THREAT OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT.

A LEAD MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST AHEAD OF A
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW ON TUESDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW GOING FROM
THE DAKOTAS TO NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE CONVECTION
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON INTO THE WAA AREA DOWNSTREAM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD IN THE EVENING...SO WILL THE CONVECTION. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE CONVECTION MAY BE THE STRONGEST...BUT
IT MAY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
SHEAR EVEN WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...SO THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN UNORGANIZED WITH THE DECENT INSTABILITY
BEING THE MAIN REASON THAT ANY STORMS COULD BECOME LOCALLY
STRONGER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK THOUGH
TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL OFF MUCH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKLY DESPITE SOME NORTHWEST FLOW. THE
NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE ON
SATURDAY AS THE 26.12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PAINT A COLD FRONT/LOW
COMING THROUGH WITH SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THROUGH MONDAY ALONG BOUNDARY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HALBACH



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