Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMKX 230950
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
350 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

PRECIPITATION ON REGIONAL RADARS AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONFIRMING THE TWO-PRONGED NATURE TO THE ADVECTION OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH ONE AREA STREAMING ACROSS
NEBRASKA INTO MN AHEAD OF NORTHERN SHORT WAVE AND THE SECOND AREA
LIFTING AHEAD OF SRN WAVE OVER TEXAS STREAMING NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

LIGHT RETURNS BLOSSOMING DUE TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT...AIDED BY ULD IN RRQ OF UPPER JET...IMPARTING SOME UPWARD
FORCING ON MOIST LOWER LAYER. EXPECT THE DRIZZLE TO LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING.  MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH SURGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT REACHING SRN WI AROUND 18Z. WILL TRACK HIGHER QPF
ACROSS S CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH LOW-LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MAX. LOOKING AT PICKING UP BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.6 INCH OF
RAIN WITH PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1 INCH.
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD HIGHS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT
LEVELS.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

NRN AND SRN SHORT WAVE ENERGY PHASE TO CARVE A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY IN THE VCNTY OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY
BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS PHASING CONSOLIDATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RIGHT
OVER SRN WI/NRN IL THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS
IT REACHES NRN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY. COULD PICK UP CLOSE TO
ANOTHER 0.5 INCH OF RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF SYSTEM WILL KEEP COLDER AIR AT BAY UNTIL MONDAY...SO CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW WON/T OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. STEADY TEMPS THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT...WITH LOWEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT BEING REACHED AROUND
DAYBREAK.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY REMAINS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. WHILE MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW...THE ISSUE LIES WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL AFTER THAT.
THERE HAVE BEEN TWO CAMPS WITH THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE MAIN
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...ONE WITH THE LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND THE OTHER WITH THE LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THERE ARE
SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS WELL.

AREAS OF HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE GFS AND ECMWF...ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA PER THE CANADIAN...AND IN THE NORTHWEST PER THE NAM.
CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS RESULTED IN 3-4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EVENING. COULD SEE SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE THE BEST SNOW
DOES SETUP. HOPEFULLY MODELS WILL SETTLE ON A SOLUTION SOON.

ADDED MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR
A DRIER SNOW.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE THE DAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL AMOUNTS REMAIN IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RANGE.

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
WAVE OR TWO MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS PRETTY LOW RIGHT NOW...SO KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK...THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY ON THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOWERING STRATUS DECK ACROSS SRN WI AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THAT WILL KEEP CIGS AT
IFR LEVELS. WILL SEE BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUM CIGS/VSBYS AS PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL BECOME STEADY...WITH AREAS OF FOG LOWERING VSBYS TO
UNDER 1 MILE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY RAIN MOVING IN
BY 18Z AND SPREADING FROM S TO N OVER ALL OF SRN WI THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS RIGHT OVER THE AREA. PCPN WILL STAY ALL LIQUID THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND
DEEPENING LOW AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS
HAVE INCREASED...THOUGH SPEED DIFFERENTIAL WILL BE CLOSE EARLY THIS
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE MARGINAL...BUT SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD ADVISORY
LEVEL WAVES FOR A TIME TODAY...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT TIMING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL OFF FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS RIGHT OVER SRN WI/NRN IL TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NNE TO NRN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS ALLOWS MIXING UP TO 35-40 KT WEST
WINDS WITHIN 1500 FT OF SURFACE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ENOUGH
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO ALLOW GALE FORCE GUSTS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY.

GALE WATCH TIMING ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE
EVENING MONDAY AS LOW RAPIDLY LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.  WILL
LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A TIME AFTER THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.