Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 070339
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
939 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.UPDATE...Light snow with very minor snow accum continues to move
south through srn WI. This is within an area of 925-850 mb
frontogenesis in the wake of the cold front. A general area of
very light snow or flurries may continue after the current area of
snow exits to the south due to a shortwave trough over IA that
will track ewd across nrn IL. Skies will clear from west to east
by Thu afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory continues until 6 AM Thu due to
brisk nwly winds. The wind gusts will fall below 22 kts for the
daytime period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 551 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017)

UPDATE...The leading edge of swd moving flurries and light snow
showers over central WI lines up well with 850 mb frontogenesis.
This area of frontogenesis and flurries will move swd through the
evening while a shortwave trough over nw IA moves ewd along the
WI/IL border after midnight. Organized areas or bands of light
snow showers may occur at times with very minor snow accum.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...MVFR Cigs will overspread srn WI from the
north this evening along with light snow showers and flurries.
MVFR vsbys may occur at times with the snow. The flurries or light
snow will continue into the early morning hours on Thu.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 300 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight - Confidence...Medium
Cloud cover has been sluggish to sag into the area from central WI
however expect to see this start to increase into southern WI
overnight in association with mid level shortwave and surface/850
millibar trough. Models are showing little in the way of qpf with
these features however given upstream obs and and 88-d returns
will retain the flurry mention for now.

Thursday through Friday - Confidence...Medium
Looks like a quiet period. Colder 925 temps on Thursday then a bit
of a bump on Friday as winds turn more westerly. There is a low
that traverses to our northeast on Friday and it shows a weak
trough passage. The GEM is the only model to show light qpf. Will
leave forecast dry for now per ECMWF and GFS.

Friday night and Saturday - Confidence...Medium to High
The GFS and ECMWF are in very good agreement on the main weather
maker of note this forecast period. A round of light snow is
expected overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. There is a
potent mid level wave and surface/850 low that rides in from the
northwest. Not too much change from prior forecast other than a
boost in the POPS due to greater confidence. Overall looks like
many areas will potentially see their first inch of snow from this
quick hitter. Windy cold thermal trough pours into the area in the
wake of this low for Saturday/Saturday evening.

Sunday - Confidence...Medium
A WAA regime kicks in though the GFS and ECMWF keep qpf to our
north. Only the GEM spreads light QPF into the area. Will keep a
small blended POP in the forecast for collaboration purposes with
our northern neighbors. But all in all like the drier look/consensus
of the GFS/ECMWF.

Monday through Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
A chilly northwest flow persists with some model differences with
respect to a feature that the ECMWF picks up on Sunday night into
Monday. All in all the GFS keeps things dry until Wednesday when
there is better consensus for some light snow chances by then.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR SKC into early this evening. Expecting
an increase in cloud cover as mid level wave and surface/850
trough move through. Potential for some flurries with these
features during the overnight into the early morning hours.
Consensus of meso models suggests 04-13z would be the window of
opportunity for some of these. As the cloud cover increases expect
some MVFR cigs to take shape and linger into the morning hours.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory is in good shape as gusty westerly
wind regime remains in place. Highest waves towards open waters
with the offshore component.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Thursday Night through Wednesday...Collar



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