Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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419
FXUS63 KMKX 281717
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1117 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.UPDATE...

showers will expand across much of the forecast area this
afternoon. Minimal CAPE with an isolated thunderstorms possible
mainly far southeast. Also some potential of a thunderstorm along
the occluded/cold front tonight.

&&


.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

IFR/low MVFR conditions will be dominant across the area through
about mid evening. Expect moderate southeast to south winds
through this afternoon with the center of strong low pressure over
the eastern Dakotas.

A secondary trough will lift north into southeast Wisconsin this
afternoon and evening, with a few rumbles of thunder possible.
Expect improving flight conditions in the wake of a cold/occluded
front later this evening south central and around midnight
southeast. A dry slot with vfr conditions expected Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

A gale warning for southeast to south wind gusts to 35 knots is
in effect through most of tonight. Expect strong winds and high
waves, the highest in the northern marine zones.

Winds will shift to the southwest late tonight as an occluded/cold
front moves through. Gusts could be at small craft advisory levels
through Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Forecast confidence is high.

Mid level ridging and drier air will dominate for Tuesday. A weak
surface trough passes through SE WI Tuesday night bringing small
precip chances to the east. The surface and upper lows drift across
WI on Wednesday. There are small precip chances Wednesday and
Thursday with shortwave activity and broad cyclonic flow. Some snow
may be mixed in at times but no accumulation is expected.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

The surface low moves away on Friday and right now the end of the
week looks quiet. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with northwest
flow behind the low. Lows will drop below freezing.

There is a lot of model disagreement for early next week with the
next system.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

IFR conditions will be dominant across the area through about mid
evening. Expect moderate to strong southerly winds through this
afternoon as the center of strong low pressure lifts north into the
eastern Dakotas.

After a lull in the precip this morning, a secondary low will lift
north across Illinois into southeast Wisconsin this afternoon and
evening. Another surge of rain will arrive late in the afternoon,
with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Expect improving flight
conditions in the wake of the secondary low later Monday evening.

MARINE...

A gale warning for southerly wind gusts to 35 knots is in effect
through most of tonight. The strong winds will build high waves, the
highest in the northern marine zones.

Winds will shift to the southwest late tonight as an occluded/cold
front moves through. Gusts could be at small craft advisory levels
through Tuesday evening.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...GALE WARNING until 3 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ643>646.

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...GALE WARNING until 3 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/Tuesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday...Marquardt



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