Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 172013
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
213 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. STILL
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION. SNOW SHOULD WIND
DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER BEYOND THAT. SOUNDINGS AND MOS ARE ON THE FENCE BETWEEN
SCATTERED AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE
THOUGH...NOT CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD IMPROVING CONDITIONS. IT MAY
END UP BEING ON AND OFF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN UPSTREAM SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. IF THE CLOUDS END UP
CLEARING OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED...WILL PROBABLY SEE LOWS A BIT LOWER
THAN IN THE FORECAST. BREEZY WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING VERY FAR THOUGH.

SAME CONCERNS WITH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SNOW FREE DAY. TEMPS TUESDAY
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...STRUGGLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS WELL...MAKING FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW COMING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
GENERALLY EXITING BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY. THE JUSTIFICATION HASN/T
CHANGED. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP IN ON A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FEATURE CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF ANOTHER SFC COLD FRONT. THERE IS RAPID SATURATION INDICATED ON
THE ISENTROPIC CHARTS IN RESPONSE TO THE WAA. MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD GET AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW. IT WILL BE FALLING DURING THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR ON WEDNESDAY...SO SOME SLICK CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH COLD
TEMPS CONTINUING.

.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND TRACK
AT THIS POINT. BUT...THEY LOOK WARMER AND SHOULD BRING TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE SURGE OF WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD BE STRONG AND LEAD TO PRECIP BREAKING
OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIP TYPE
TRANSITIONS EARLY ON...LIKELY GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A
TIME...THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO A WINTRY MIX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT/S TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS IN COMPLICATED SYSTEM LIKE THIS...BUT IT WILL GET
UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING. SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT...AS SOUNDINGS
AND MOS ARE ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR CIGS. WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE THOUGH...NOT CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. IT MAY END UP BEING ON AND OFF MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
SAME CONCERNS WITH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SNOW FREE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS...WHICH RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOWER
END...WITH ANY HIGHER WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATERS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS



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