Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 141643 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1143 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL. THE
SURFACE/925MB FRONT EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW IS BISECTING
THE MKX FORECAST ARE FROM WEST BEND/ PORT WASHINGTON TO
MONROE/JANESVILLE. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS FRONT
HAVE RECENTLY BECOME VERY GUSTY. WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST.

RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONED OVER THE SHEBOYGAN AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS OVER THE REGION.
SOUTHEAST WI WILL REMAIN IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS. SMALL CAPE IN
SOUTHEAST WI COULD ALLOW FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE COOL SIDE /WEST
SIDE/ OF THE FRONT... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND THE FRONT OVER
THE MKX AREA WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH JUST
BEHIND THIS FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

A FRONT IS BISECTING SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING... NOW LOCATED
FROM TIMMERMAN TO WATERTOWN TO JANESVILLE. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS ARE STRONG ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THIS FRONT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES.

BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/VFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY SOUTHEAST DUE TO DRIER
AIR WEDGING INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT IFR CIGS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS
AFTERNOON... EXCEPT PROBABLY REMAIN WIDESPREAD AROUND THE SHEBOYGAN
AREA. BRISK NORTH WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND ALSO WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
ILLINOIS TODAY.  A STRONG 110 KNOT SOUTH JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...PUTTING
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE. AS A RESULT THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES
TODAY AND THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT.  HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL.

WHILE THE LOW/MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS STACKED BELOW THE UPPER
LOW...THE 850/700 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH THE LOW SLOWLY FILLING.  ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST TIP HAS WEAK
ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE OF 50 JOULES/KG.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DRY SLOT AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THEN WITH THE INCREASING DYNAMICS RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER FROM ABOUT SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO AROUND OHIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH LIFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW FOR SOME LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SATURATION WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW 700 MB...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MORE DRIZZLE THAN
RAIN. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS
THURSDAY...BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIP ALONG WITH SOME AFTERNOON
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE LOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SHOULD SEE A RECOVERY
TO NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN COMES OUT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW TO HOLD FOR MOST OF THE TIME FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY KEEPING ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH MODELS BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS VARY ON DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM
RIGHT NOW...SO KEPT DRY WEATHER GOING...THOUGH THE LATEST CANADIAN
AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING WETTER.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY WILL FALL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SEEING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/VFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY SOUTHEAST AS DRY
SLOT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT IFR CIGS THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECOMING
MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE CENTER OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ644-645.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV



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