Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 270830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LINGERING MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE RESULTED IN ISOLATED
-SHRA DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CWA AFT 05Z. HOWEVER -SHRA
THREAT DWINDLING AS DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR CIRCULATING AROUND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL GTLAKES SPREADING ACRS SE WI.
AREAS OF FOG WL CONTINUE IN WRN CWA THRU 12Z OR SO DUE TO MORE
CLEARING AND THU AND FRI EVE SHRA DEPOSTING HEAVY RAIN IN THE
AREA.

A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY...CLOSING IN ON SEASONAL NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
LAKE. LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY HELP FEW-SCT CU
DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A QUIET
NIGHT AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER SLIDES RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THIS
FEATURE WL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 12Z IN THE FAR WEST...BUT WL
INTRODUCE A SMALL POP IN THE FAR WEST FOR LATE TNGT.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING
SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN 850 MB TROUGH ACCOMPANIES THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW. NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. MEAN LAYER CAPES ARE TALL AND SKINNY...WITH WEAK DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCH UP TOWARDS 1.50
INCHES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

WENT WITH HIGH POPS IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LEFT THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES IN HIGH CHANCE
POP RANGE...AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST. SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS MAY LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE.

AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MOIST WITH TALL SKINNY MEAN LAYER CAPES AND WEAK
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. SREF POPS ARE HIGH FOR MONDAY...THOUGH
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE FAIRLY DRY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY...COOLER NEAR IT WITH WINDS TURNING
ONSHORE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH. KEPT CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FEATURES. MAY SEE A
BREAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

THINNING CLOUDS OVER CWA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY ALLOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG TO AFFECT TAF SITES. OTRW...A VFR PERIOD
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND TSTORMS LIKELY TO AFFECT KMSN ON SUN.
NOT AS CONFIDENT FARTHER EAST.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND WAVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GTLAKES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TODAY AS THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FARTHER TO THE EAST OF WESTERN
LAKE MI.

&&

.BEACHES...

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL
CAUSE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES IN
KENOSHA COUNTY...RESULTING IN A MODERATE SWIM RISK. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LOWER FARTHER NORTH...SO THE
SWIM RISK WILL REMAIN LOW AT BEACHES FROM RACINE NORTH TO
SHEBOYGAN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD



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