Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 280933
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK
RIDGING NOSING OVER REGION...BRINGING SOME RARE SUNSHINE TO THE
REGION TODAY. CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WELL NORTH ALONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS NRN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH TODAY.

GFS FASTEST WITH BRINGING COLD AIR INTO SRN WI...SO WENT WITH A
SLOWER CONSENSUS BLEND THAT ALLOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH UPPER 20S FAR NW...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SLOWLY COOLING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID-HI LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AS
WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH
THE COLD FRONT.

.TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD IN ON NORTH WINDS BEHIND SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT THAT MODELS TAKE JUST SOUTH INTO NRN IL BY 12Z MONDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
HELP HOLD LOWS IN THE TEENS...WITH LOW 20S ALONG THE IL BORDER.

LAKE WATER TEMPERATURE/850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW. BUT NO LITTLE TO NO CONVERGENCE ON
WEST SIDE OF LAKE...EXCEPT OVER NE IL FOR A SHORT TIME
OVERNIGHT...AND SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH THAT DOES NOT REACH INTO THE
DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE SO NO LAKE-EFFECT EXPECTED.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH ELONGATED
SHEARED VORTICITY TO OUR SOUTH AND OTHER SHORTWAVE AFFECTING NRN
WI. AIRMASS LOOKS VERY DRY WITH NAM SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL
SATURATION POTENTIAL AOA 8K FEET BUT PARCHED BELOW. COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES WITH 925 TEMPS ACRS NRN CWA GETTING INTO THE NEGATIVE
TEENS CELSIUS. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER CLOSER TO MID
LAKE AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST BUT CONSENSUS POPS STILL BRUSHES
FAR ERN KENOSHA COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT SO LEFT THAT AS IS FOR NOW.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS PERIOD. CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CANADA
THIS WILL TIGHTEN UP A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS WI BY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RATHER STRONG NW UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. ANY VORTICITY WITHIN THIS
FLOW LOOKS LARGELY SHEARED. WEAK FRONT IS PROGGD TO SAG INTO THE
AREA WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING LIGHT QPF POTENTIAL. OTHER MODELS ARE
DRY. HAVE RETAINED THE DRY LOOK OF THE SUPERBLEND POPS AT THIS
TIME AS OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE QUITE MINIMAL.
EXPECTING HIGHS TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S AS LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW MODERATES 925/850 COLD POOL.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH RESPECT
TO BRINGING NEWD MOVG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MERGES
THIS WITH NRN BRANCH WAVE. THIS RESULTS IN A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO THE GFS. ECMWF SOLUTION IS COLDER WITH A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK AND KEEPS PRECIP ALL SNOW WHILE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME MIXY POTENTIAL FOR A TIME. ON THE FLIP SIDE THE GEM AND
PARALLEL GFS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SCENARIO. SO THIS FAR OUT
LIKE THE SUPERBLEND APPROACH OF HAVING SOME CHC POPS INTRODUCED
ESP WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT STILL
SOME QUESTION MARKS WITH THE DRY GEM/PARALLEL GFS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
MID-HI LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING IN THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CLOUD DECK
WILL THEN MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTH
WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR



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