Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 152009
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING FOR A WHILE AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 20S QUICKLY GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALSO PICK UP...SO LOWS FOR THE NIGHT WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY INCREASING LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

GIVEN DECENT WARM ADVECTION...MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES IN
THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS THOUGH...SO IT WILL PROBABLY BE HARD FOR ANY PRECIP TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SOME RAIN
SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DRAWS NEAR.

THE OTHER ISSUE TOMORROW WILL BE THE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WEST WHERE WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST DURING PERIOD OF BEST MIXING. ONLY ISSUE
MIGHT BE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH COULD DECREASING MIXING SOME
AND LIMIT HIGHER GUSTS. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 45 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST.

TEMPS WILL BE MILDER TOMORROW UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL VALUES BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
WISCONSIN. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVES
WAY TO DOWNWARD MOTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAK UPWARD
MOTION BEGINS THURSDAY.

A BAND OF HIGHER 850/700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXTENDS ACROSS
AREAS NORTHWEST AND WEST OF MADISON BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT. THEN ANOTHER BAND OF HIGHER RH
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID LEVEL SOUTHERN TROUGH.

THE NAM HAS SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THEN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLS OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THICKNESS
VALUES ARE MARGINAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE
DRIER.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A RATHER SHARP UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. MODERATE UPWARD MOTION ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

IN THE MID LEVELS THE 500 MB TROUGH IS SLOWER AND HAS A SECONDARY
WEAKER TROUGH DROPPING INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NAM HAS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. 850 AND THICKNESS VALUES WOULD
INDICATE SNOW AND THE BOUNDARY LEVELS COOL ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW
IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE
GFS ARE DRIER.

THE 700 MB RH DRIES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT INCREASES A LITTLE
WEST OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
WISCONSIN SATURDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A SURFACE HIGH INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY ON THE GFS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT
RAIN INTO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS IN SOME RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS ON THE GFS. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TROF AXIS AND WARM FRONT FOR
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IT STRENGTHENS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE 00Z ECMWF AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...TUESDAY.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE TIMING WIND SHIFTS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A
FEW REPORTS ALONG THE LAKE TURN EASTWARD. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NOT
MUCH OF A DRIVING FORCE FOR A LAKE BREEZE...WINDS MAY JUST GO LIGHT
A VARIABLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 30-35 KNOTS.
THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL JET...WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL
WINDS ALOFT DECREASE LATE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT.

MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES FAR NORTH TOMORROW MORNING...AND
MAYBE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH WINDS SLOWLY EASING LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHT
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS MAY LIMIT HIGHER GUSTS GIVEN THE
COOLER MARINE LAYER. THUS DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 15Z WED TO 12Z THU. WENT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGHER
WAVES WILL PROBABLY LINGER AFTER WINDS SETTLE DOWN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ



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