000
FXUS63 KMKX 110232
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
932 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and scattered storms Thursday afternoon and evening
  especially over south central WI.

- River flooding will continue through the weekend on isolated
  portions of the Lower Fox and Rock Rivers. Additional rises
  and possible flooding on area rivers will be possible with
  Thursday`s rainfall.

- Gusty northwest winds are expected through most of Friday,
  with a Gale Watch Thu nt-Fri for Lake MI.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 930 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

No major updates to the forecast this evening. Showers and
storms are still expected tomorrow as the upper shortwave
trough across the northern Great Plains continues to dig
southeast towards Wisconsin and the low across the lower
Mississippi River Valley moves northeast. Still expect any storms
to be sub-severe given only marginal CAPE of a few hundred
J/kg, low tops, and lack of significant boundary layer
destabilization due to expected cloud cover.

Falkinham

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 338 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Tonight through Friday:

Scattered to broken high based cumulus will continue into the
early evening with perhaps some sprinkles, while a lake breeze
accelerates inland. Otherwise delayed the rain for late tnt-Thu
AM as 12Z GEFS and 12Z GFS is tracking the lower MS River
cyclogenesis farther ewd to Lake Erie by 00Z Fri. Thus the
digging and amplifying shortwave trough currently over the high
nrn Great Plains will be the main catalyst for showers and sct
storms Thu- Thu nt. Confluent flow btwn the two systems will
lead to low level frontogenesis and an inverted trough over srn
WI with some marginal CAPE expected. Numerous showers and sct
storms will develop over south central WI by early Thu afternoon
with some development ewd into Thu nt. Any convection will be
low topped but small hail will be possible and brief heavy
rainfall rates. Some training of cells is possible so cannot
rule out urban and small stream flooding, a fairly low
probability though. A n-s band of nearly 0.50 inches is possible
over south central WI but locally more.

The deep low will then move from Ontario into sw Quebec on Fri,
while 500 mb height rises begin. Some clearing is expected in
the afternoon with temps rebounding nicely well into the 50s,
but with brisk nwly winds.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 338 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Friday night through Wednesday:

A weak sfc ridge will slowly move across srn WI Fri nt-Sat AM
followed by lgt sly winds and warm advection in the afternoon.
The airmass in the wake of Thu-Fri`s low pressure is still
fairly mild and temps will rebound to middle 60s to 70F away
from Lake MI.

A wave of low pressure will then move ewd across central WI Sat
nt into Sun AM but with only 20-30 percent chances of showers.
Despite lgt nly winds in its wake for Sun, a very mild airmass
was brought into the region with little cooling so high temps in
the 70s still looks good away from the lake. Weak high pressure
to then move across the region Sun nt into Mon AM with continued
mild temps.

Another strong round of cyclogenesis is then expected from the
central high plains to just west of Lake Superior from late Mon
into Wed. This track will maintain mild temps but also bring
60-80 percent chances of showers from late Mon nt-Tue.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 930 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight into
Thursday morning. Straggling mid-clouds continue to move
eastward across central Wisconsin this evening with high clouds
moving in from the south associated with the low pressure across
the lower Mississippi River Valley. Winds will turn northerly
on Thursday as the low approaches the Great Lakes region. Gusts
around 20KT are expected by Thursday evening. Showers and
scattered thunderstorms are expected across southern Wisconsin
Thursday afternoon and evening associated with the low and upper
shortwave trough.

Falkinham

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 338 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Light to modest south winds will weaken further this evening while
light east to northeast winds prevail over far southern Lake MI.
Low pressure of 29.5 inches over the lower Mississippi River
Valley this evening will then deepen to 29.1 inches as it tracks
to Lake Erie by Thursday evening. The low will then slowly deepen
a bit more and move into southwest Quebec by Friday evening. Thus
expect increasing northerly winds on Thursday over the lake,
possibly becoming northwest gales Thursday night and Friday,
especially over the northern and eastern portion of the lake. A
Gale Watch is in effect from 03Z Fri until 00Z Sat for the
entire open lake. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Thu-Fri
from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor for breezy north to northwest
winds.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...1 PM Thursday to 7 PM
     Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...1 AM Friday to 7 PM
     Friday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 PM Thursday to 7
     PM Friday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee