Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 021738
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
138 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MID CLOUDS SLIDING ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE WESTERN LAKE. RADAR IS
ONLY SHOWING A COUPLE VERY SMALL SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THESE ARE ACTUALLY REACHING THE
SURFACE. NONE OF THE SURFACE OBS UP THAT WAY HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIP EITHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE NEXT WAVE...OVER
MANITOBA...WHICH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY
DRY LOW LEVELS THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD HELP EXPLAIN WHY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY BEING OBSERVED. THE DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS TREND...THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT POPS OVER
NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. AFTER TIMING THIS FEATURE...IT APPEARS AS IF THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL SLIDE INTO
NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 18Z/02. THE BEST FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE...ALLOWING MOST OF THE U.P.
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...KEEPING CONTINUED BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...MAINLY OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT...WILL BE AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE READING
POSSIBLE IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN U.P. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
FRI THAT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SAT. THIS IS REPLACED
BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. NAM
HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA ON FRI
WHICH REMAINS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME
THING...SO HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRI THROUGH
FRI NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AS THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES FRI AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
SET OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD LAST
INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. DID CONTINUE DRY FOR THE 4TH AS DIEING COLD FRONT IS OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THEN.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT AND MOVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON MON. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON MON AND LINGERS INTO WED
AS IT BROADENS AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THE SFC COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WED. BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVING
LIKELY POPS FOR THEN CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. WILL DRY OUT FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AFTER
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KSAW
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF THROUGH 18Z
FRI.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND
LACK OF ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
LAKE. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED STABILITY WILL HELP KEEP WIND GUSTS
BELOW 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT FORMS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KEC



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