Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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687
FXUS63 KMQT 242352
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
752 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

High pressure/light winds over the east tonight and skies will
remain clear. With that setup went for lows in the 40s inland
central and east. Temperatures will be in the 50s elsewhere, warmest
over far west with developing return flow there. Could be some
patchy fog overnight inland east.

Mid-level and sfc high pressure will remain in control through much
of the day on Tue keeping conditions dry over much of the cwa. Dew
points increasing to near 60F along and ahead of incoming frontal
boundary from the Northern Plains will result in MUCAPE values of
500j/kg or greater far west by late afternoon. This will at least
warrant slight chance pops over the far west for isold shra/tsra,
and with deep layer shear values fcst of 40-45 knots a strong tsra
would not be out of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

Main focus is on Tue night and Wed as a cold front moves across the
area, likely bringing convection. Otherwise, high pressure will keep
things quiet until maybe day 7 when some energy could bring some
precip, but no details on that yet.

Looks like weakening convection should move into the area late Tue
into Tue night, some of which could be strong to severe over mainly
the western CWA. CAPE is initially in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and
shear around 30kts, but diminishing CAPE with the normal diurnal
trend will diminish the severe weather threat over all but the far
W. The threat for sub-severe, yet strong, storms does look to extend
into central Upper MI.

On Wed, as the front continues to drop SE through the area, precip
looks to continue along the front, but coverage is uncertain. If
coverage is minimal there is a chance that some strong to possibly
severe storms could develop over the S-central given strong shear.

Blends handled everything well, so didn`t make any changes to
blended initialization.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 752 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

VFR conditions expected at each of the TAF sites through this
issuance.  Clouds may begin to move in to IWD toward the very end of
the TAF period, but no low ceilings expected.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 252 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

Winds will be 15 knots or less through Tuesday morning with high
pressure overhead. The next chance for stronger winds from the south
to southwest over 20 kts will be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
morning over eastern sections as a low pressure trough crosses the
region. Otherwise, winds this week will be 15 kts or less.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Voss



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