Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 230522
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.

TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF THE SATELLITE INGEST INTO THE
NUMERICAL MODELS /WITH NESDIS SATELLITE COMMS ISSUES CAUSING MISSING
OR OLD IMAGES ON WEB PAGES/...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
SINCE THE 22/00Z RUNS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO DETAILS ON WHEN
THE ISSUE WILL BE FIXED.

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE E PROGRESSION OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. A SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER E
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT
S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-11C...HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL CROSS MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...AND N-CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE NE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

AS THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE N PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING WNW WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 25-35MPH /STRONGEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. INCREASED WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FCST FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC. FCST MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES AT 12Z MONDAY TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.
WHETHER OR NOT A SFC TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST STILL FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON. NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A COMPLETE TOSS UP...WITH
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 12Z RUNS RANGING FROM -5C TO 3C. WILL ADD A
SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN N-NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS A SECONDARY
LOW WRAPS NEARS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI THRU THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A PERIOD OF IFR COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME PCPN ENDS.
AT KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED
TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A BREAK OUT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AT KSAW AS WEAKENING
FRONT AND SHRA APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...WITH LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB






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