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000
FXUS63 KMQT 210641
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
241 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and cloudy conditions give way to gradually clearing
  skies and decreasing winds into the evening. Temperatures turn
  chilly again tonight.
- Elevated fire weather conditions Sunday and Monday, mainly in
  the west and central.
- Showers return Monday night into Tuesday.
- Temperatures warming through Monday, then cooler Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough across the Great
Lakes region with a ridge in the northern and Canadian Rockies. This
ridge moves into the northern plains by 00z Mon. A dry and weakening
cold front moves through the area today. Rh`s get down to around 25
percent this afternoon. This is some concern with winds being gusty,
but with recent wet trends, this should keep fire weather concerns
down for now. Will mention in the hwomqt product and also send out
an email to our fire weather partners to let them know about the low
rh values this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 433 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Starting Sunday, a mid level trough axis centered over northeastern
Ontario that extends south into the Great Lakes moves east into
Quebec and New England by Sunday evening. While the vorticity max
stays north of Lake Superior as it moves east into Quebec, an
associated sfc trough and the tail end of a cold front will be
dragged southeast across the UP Sunday afternoon. This ultimately
looks to only increase cloud cover during the morning/early
afternoon hours, but model soundings do leave some spotty potential
for some light showers mid morning into the afternoon over the far
east where the best forcing is. If any snow/rain showers are able to
materialize, only trace amounts are expected. Some gusty northwest
winds are also expected with deep mixing up to 5-7kft. Gusts up to
20-25 mph are expected in the mid morning through the afternoon. The
cold front will keep the east cooler in the 40s, central and west
will see highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s (warmest south central).
This will result in RHs approaching 35-40% over the east and 25-35%
in the interior west and south central. This increases fire weather
concerns Sunday afternoon, especially over the south central UP.
Winds become light again overnight with sfc high pressure builds
over the UP. With good radiative cooling, lows fall into the mid 20s
to upper 30s with coldest temps expected over the east where the
best subsidence will be.

Warmer than normal temps are more broadly forecast on Monday in the
low 50s to mid 60s, warmest interior west. With another day of deep
mixing, elevated fire weather concerns return in the afternoon. Min
RHs bottom out in the low 20s to low 30s, lowest west, and southwest
wind gusts are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph by the
afternoon. Cloud cover begins to increase ahead of the next
shortwave.

Monday night, a shortwave over Manitoba moves southeast toward the
northwest end of Lake Superior by Tuesday morning. Uncertainty in
the forecast grows Tuesday onward, but the general consensus is for
the shortwave to continue southeast over the Great Lakes Tuesday
into Wednesday. WAA and Isentropic ascent kick off showers Monday
night over the west. Showers overspread eastward across the UP as an
approaching left exit region of the jet strengthens the sfc low over
Lake Superior. As the low makes its way east off Lake Superior and
over Ontario again Tuesday morning, a strong cold front is forced
south over the UP. This will increase PoPs, strengthen winds, and
mix in some snow showers/transitioning completely over to snow in
some northern areas. No impactful accumulations are expected at this
time. This CAA also will bring low temps Tuesday night into the 20s;
some biased corrected guidance hints at teens in the north. Left in
some slight chance PoPs early Tuesday night for possible wrap around
shortwave energy off a trough maintaining over Hudson Bay, but
confidence remains low.

Sfc high pressure returns to the Great Lakes on Wednesday bringing
back dry weather into Friday while mid level ridging over the
rockies moves east over the Great Lakes. Uncertainty remains in the
latter part of the forecast regarding the timing and track of
shortwaves riding northeast into the Great Lakes next weekend into
the following week. Thus, left NBM PoPs (30-60% chance) which
increase on Friday and continue into Saturday as models indicate a
sfc low ejecting off the rockies and heading northeast into the
region. The southwest flow does bring a return to above normal temps
late this week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Although a weakening cold front will drop into the area today, VFR
will prevail thru this fcst period at IWD/CMX/SAW. Some cu/stratocu
will develop this morning, but cloud bases are likely to be aoa
4000ft. Winds at all terminals will become gusty again this morning
to around 20kt and will then become light at around 5kt or less this
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 433 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Westerly winds of 20-30 kts continue through early this evening.
Winds diminish tonight to around 20-25 kts tonight aside from a
brief period of ~20 kts winds over the east half of the lake early
on. High pressure building in over the west half of the lake
increases stability, reducing winds to less than 20 kts by Sunday
afternoon while instability over the east half continues with 20-30
kt northwest winds behind a cold front. High pressure over the Great
Lakes reduces winds below 20 kts across the entire lake by Sunday
night, continuing into Monday morning. The next period of interest
is Monday night as southerly winds increase ahead of an approaching
low pressure system; stability is expected to keep these winds to
~20 kt or less. A strong pressure gradient on the back side of the
low accompanied by a strong cold front surging south on Tuesday
brings good potential for a brief period of gales over central
portions of the lake late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon (~50-
80% chance for wind gusts exceeding 34 kts). Otherwise, widespread
north winds of 20-30 kts are expected on Tuesday as instability
increases. North winds diminish behind the low from west to east,
returning below 20 kts by Wednesday night as high pressure returns.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LSZ242>244.

  Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LSZ250-251.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Jablonski