Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 290119
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
919 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER SCNTRL CANADA WITH EXTENSION OF THAT
TROUGH TO SW OVER THE US ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS NW
ONTARIO. TAIL OF THIS WAVE SHOWS UP AS RATHER UNORGANIZED AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS. THE WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MLCAPES
OVER 1000J/KG TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSRA OVER MOSTLY WEST
UPR MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY
WEAKER LIFT/SHEAR ALOFT...MAYBE UP AROUND 30 KTS. STRONGER STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG. OVERALL...THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOWER THAN
YDY GIVEN WEAK LIFT/SHEAR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY STILL OCCUR AS WELL
WHICH IF IT OCCURRED OVER ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE RIVER BASINS /CRFM4
AND HRVM4/. ONCE THESE SHRA/TSRA RUN THEIR COURSE...EXPECT LULL AS
MAIN FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE WEST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT LIKELY TURNS TO DENSE FOG NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS FOG OVER LK
MICHIGAN COMES IN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. PUT A DENSE FOG ADVY OUT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE ON LAND WILL MORE PATCHY SO NO
ADVY THERE.

ATTN LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT
OF OK/KS. MODELS INSISTENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD UPR LAKES
TOWARD MORNING...09Z-12Z AT THE WI BORDER AND SHORTLY AFT 12Z CLOSER
TO LK SUPERIOR. NOT SURE HOW MUCH TSRA WILL TIE INTO THESE SHRA AS
ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES STAY BLO 500J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
TSRA GOING. LIKELY MORE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY THOUGH AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER
+10C. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS AND ALSO THE CHOCOLAY RIVER BASIN NEAR HARVEY AS RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS HAS RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS NEAR BANKFULL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AS SHOWING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL MAKE FOR
QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD UP MID-LATE AFTN
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO WORK ON. GIVEN PERSISTENT
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTN...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA. STILL AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 RISK WHICH KEEPS BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE SOUTH OF CWA
MORE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. BASED ON CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY SEE STRONG STORMS TRY TO MOVE
BACK INTO SCNTRL CWA /IMT/MNM/ESC/ LATE IN THE AFTN. ONE MORE WARMER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. ANY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN
WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS UP NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

IN GENERAL...THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH MISSED THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT CMX WHICH BRIEFLY SAW A HEAVY TSTM BEFORE 00Z.
LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THIS STORM ALLOWED CMX TO DROP TO VLIFR SOON
AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE BRIEF AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
HELPING TO MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
LOCALIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE U.P. ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ALL
SITES TO DROP TO MVFR FRI MORNING AND PERHAPS LOWERING TO IFR DURING
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ245>247.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLA


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