Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 290814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
414 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

00Z raobs/latest wv imagery and rap analysis show shrtwv lifting
NEwd thru the Upr MS river valley. Lift associated with this
disturbance...pwats arnd 1.25 inch /150-200 pct of normal/ and axis
of a bit hier h7-5 lapse rates have triggered some showers/a few TS
over mainly wrn Upr MI closer to deeper moist air and away fm
relatively drier air shown on the 00z GRB raob. Overall though, weak
h85 theta-e advctn during period of nocturnal cooling and the
relatively dry 00z GRB raob have held down the coverage of the
showers. More isold-sct showers are present upstream fm SE MN into
NW WI in the area of DPVA ahead of shrtwv lifting to the NE. Looking
farther to the W, moist llvl air extends upstream into scentral
Canada/MN, but some drier air is present over NDakota.

Main fcst concerns this in the short term focus on expected
convection today/potential for some heavy ra.

Today...Shrtwv to the SW is progged to lift NE acrs the Western
Great Lks...reaching Ern Lk Sup by 00z Mon. Expect sct showers/a few
TS this mrng over mainly the wrn CWA to move to the E and become
more nmrs with the shrtwv forcing/accompanying sfc lo pres trof/axis
of deeper h85-5 mstr/daytime heating. Overall destabilization today
wl be limited by rather extensive cld cover and some morning fog...
with max temps topping out in the mid 70s away fm lk moderation. 00z
NAM fcst MUCape is about 1500 j/kg, but severe threat wl be limited
by 0-6km shear arnd 25 kts and deep moist lyr. The relatively weak
winds aloft/deep shear and hi pwats sug heavy ra wl be the main
threat from the stronger storms that dvlp.

Tngt...Any lingering showers/TS over mainly the ern CWA this evng wl
diminish with arrival of DNVA/Deep lyr qvector dvgc/mid lvl drying/
nocturnal cooling. The llvls are slower to dry out, but eventually
the steady WNW flow--with the 00z NAM showing h95-9 winds up to
30kts--is fcst to tap the drier air now moving E thru NDakota. The
arrival of this drier air should bring clrg to the W, but the ern
CWA wl probably remain mocldy thru 12z as the drier air is fcst to
remain to the W thru that time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Nam forecasts a 500 mb shortwave over the area 00z Mon followed by a
shortwave ridge that moves in on Tue. GFS and ECMWF show about the
same thing as well and will go with a blend of them for this
forecast. Pops move out Sun night and do not return to the cwa until
Tue. Looks pretty quiet and will still continue the dry forecast for
Memorial Day and Mon night. Overall, did not make too many changes
to the going forecast.

In the extended...GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb trough and
closed low over the northern plains 12z Wed. This trough moves into
the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu and remains over the area through Sat.
Still remains unsettled this forecast period with temperatures
remaining near normal. Fri looks to be the driest day of this
forecast period with sfc high pressure in the area. Sat could have
some lake breeze convection with light winds and a warm front near
the area.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 123 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

LIFR/IFR conditions continue this morning while KSAW continues to
be the odd site out as VFR conditions continue. But with some
precipitation moving through expect low clouds and a reduction in
visibilities there with MVFR ceilings and visibilities due to fog.
the lower ceilings and fog will persist over all three TAF sites
into the early daylight hours. Another shot of shower activity is
possible at KSAW and KIWD in the morning and early afternoon hours
which will then help erode any lingering low clouds with MVFR
ceilings giving way to VFR conditions by the evening. There will be
some gusty winds over the two western TAF sites with gusts to near
20 knots in the afternoon but winds will diminish by the evening.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 412 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

A relatively weak pres gradient/hi stability will dominate the Upper
Great Lakes most of this forecast period, so expect winds at or
below 20kts over most of the Lake. The one exception will be over
far western Lake Superior late Mon night into Tue, when the pres
gradient will tighten ahead of an approaching lo pres and terrain
funneling of the expected NE wind will cause winds up to 25 kts.
With moist air lingering over the chilly lake waters, dense fog will
persist most of today before the arrival of drier air from the W
begins to diminish gradually the intensity of the fog this afternoon
into tonight. Continued going Dense Fog Advisorys.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243>246-

  Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for

Lake Michigan...


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