Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 172040
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WEAK 500MB LOW OVER THE SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH S OF THE LOW OVER NRN MN. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE
LAST DAY ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE SFC LOW HAS FILLED TO 1021MB AND
IS JUST S OF THE CWA WHILE THE 850MB LOW IS OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SOME DEFORMATION FORCING LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING
BAND OVER THE NERN ARROWHEAD OF MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. A MAJORITY
OF THE SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED NE OF THE CWA...LEAVING SOME
FOG/DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR.

DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
DUE TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING
WLY...LEADING TO UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W /AND
SOMEWHAT THE NE/. DRIER AIR AND DAYTIME MIXING FRI MORNING WILL LEAD
TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTERIOR W TO THE MID
20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE IN THE MID 30S
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON MODERATE RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS UPPER MI. THE REST OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONSISTING OF TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND A
TROUGH OVER QUEBEC...WILL DOMINATE THE INITIAL PERIOD OF WEATHER
ACROSS UPPER MI. SUBSTANTIAL DRYING BEHIND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM TODAYS SYSTEM WILL HAVE CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FAIRLY
COLD CONDITIONS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS AND FOLLOWING
THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH PRODUCES LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
INLAND. HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN LATE IN APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL LIMIT COOLING ACROSS THE WEST.

SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285 TO 295K LAYERS WILL BE
ONGOING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LAG SOMEWHAT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH A LOW-LEVEL LAYER OF
ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS SURGING INTO THE AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THIS
THREAT SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING WITH WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING
INSOLATION.

BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM H8 TO H7. THE
COMBINATION PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 INCHES/220 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS QPF IS AROUND 0.5 INCHES...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE PRODUCING UP TO 1 INCH OF QPF. THIS BRINGS UP SOME
HYDRO CONCERNS...WHICH IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
ONTARIO SATURDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRIFTING SE ACROSS
THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONT...AND SHOULD GAIN MORE
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT ACROSS THE EAST HALF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.

SUNDAY...WHILE ALL MODELS STALL THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THERE THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT MOST PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES FAIRLY QUIET BY
MONDAY. A TROUGH AXIS WILL TRACK SE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY...BUT
MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. A
DEEP TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

WHILE THE BULK OF THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO REDUCED
CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL DAYTIME MIXING AND DRIER AIR IMPROVE
CONDITIONS ON FRI. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SOME FZDZ AT CMX AND POSSIBLE IWD...BUT WAS NOT AS CONFIDENT AT
IWD SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RESULTS IN NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN WINDS STAYING BELOW 20 KTS INTO SATURDAY...BUT EAST WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 KTS BY
SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED
SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE /LOW TO MID
50S/ ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PERSISTENT MELTING
SHOULD OCCUR. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR FREEZING EACH
NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. WITH THE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY...A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING ICE ON THE RIVERS
COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND
ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN
RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...KLUBER






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