Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 272041
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS






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