Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 102003
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

A QUIET DAY ACROSS UPPER MI WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND SOME SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST HALF
ON FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE RUNNING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL BOTH SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL ND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
ALBERTA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CWA WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST WAVE
OVERNIGHT AS MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER ACROSS THE AREA.
NOTHING BESIDE SOME CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT
OUTRUNS BETTER DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT. THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE SFC HIGH
WILL LIMIT COOLING ACROSS THE WEST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS FOR THE EAST HALF...A PERIOD OF DECENT COOLING IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN AS A WEAK EXTENSION
OF THE HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN UPPER MI. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 40S FAR EAST TO AROUND 60 FAR WEST.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A PATCH OF
SHOWERY ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN UPPER MI AROUND 12Z FRIDAY ON
THE NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H8 TO H7 FGEN. HAVE
THUS INCREASED POPS A SMALL AMOUNT ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT...AS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE...THE SHOWERS SHOULD OUTRUN UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND TRACK
INTO DRIER LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK INVERSION AROUND 875HPA. THIS SHOULD
KEEP A DECENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FINALLY ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BY WAY OF THE
RIGHT EXIT OF A 90KT 250HPA JET STREAK. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKING INTO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO
WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE JET AND TROUGH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE AROUND 500J/KG ACROSS THE FAR
WEST WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS.

FINALLY...30 TO 40KT WINDS BETWEEN 900 AND 850HPA MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT SFC WIND FORECAST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL MIXING...BUT
GUSTS OVER 20KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR SSW DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EXPECTED ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WRN CANADA
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO JUST W OF HUDSON BAY BY 00Z SAT BEFORE
SHIFTING S TO THE CENTRAL MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY 00Z MON. DURING
THIS TIME...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH...ONE FRI
NIGHT/SAT AND ANOTHER ON SUN NIGHT. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IMPROVING IN
SHOWING THE LOW MOVING TO OR NEAR THE WRN CWA BY 00Z TUE BEFORE
SHIFTING TO E OF THE CWA BY 18Z TUE AND INTO NRN QUEBEC BY 0Z0
THU...ALTHOUGH DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL COOL OFF AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE TUE AS THE LOW SHIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 4C. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH INSTABILITY
RESULTING FROM DAYTIME SFC HEATING BENEATH COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD...HIGH TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50 IN SOME SPOTS ON TUE...WHICH WOULD BE
RECORD BREAKING FROM A MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE PERSPECTIVE.

FRI WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND
INSTABILITY ON THE LOW END /BELOW 300J/KG/...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS
NOT EXPECTED.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL HAVE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO JUST GENERAL
THUNDER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE FRONT COULD SLOW DOWN...WHICH /DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND
EARLIER PRECIPITATION/ COULD RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY OVER
SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE LAKE BREEZES WOULD HELP TO TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BY 40-45KTS. FAR FROM
CERTAIN...BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE SCENTRAL IF
EVERYTHING WORKS OUT.

SUN/SUN NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS
AND EARLY PRECIPITATION. IF ENOUGH CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN
OCCUR...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OR 45-55KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER
STORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNAL CUMULUS AT 5 TO 6KFT WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR WEAK LLWS ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KTS OVER 1KFT TO DEVELOP
FOR IWD AND CMX BY LATE EVENING. SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND FAIRLY SCATTERED AT IWD LATE FRIDAY MORNING...AND CMX AT
THE END OF PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW IWD TO SEE HIGH-END MVFR CIGS WITH
THE SHRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING S TO SSW FLOW THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS AROUND 20KTS AT ALL SITES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SOUTH WINDS OF UP TO 20
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE LIGHT SW TO W WINDS
FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER





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