Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 310830
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
430 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS MUCH LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...CIRCULATING
AROUND THE MAIN 500MB LOW

MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND W OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRACKING THE
BULK OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR ALMOST A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE FCST MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND S UPPER MI. DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
THIS AREA...CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING IN OFF LAKE MI. CAPE
VALUES ARE MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER/LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF JAMES BAY
DEAMPLIFIES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHER THAN ON SATURDAY THOUGH...TROUGHING
PERSISTS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A COUPLE
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THE FIRST IS ON FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE SECOND
COMING IN LATER SUNDAY.

THE CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY INLAND OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
POCKET OF H7-H5 MOISTURE CROSSES IN THE AFTN OVER NORTHERN WI AND
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WHILE GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH
THIS FORCING. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S RESULTS IN MLCAPES INTO
INTERIOR WEST CWA PUSHING TOWARD 500J/KG...BUT GREATER INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY AFTN DWPTS ONLY INTO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S. NAM
DWPNTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SEEM WAY OVERDONE AND RESULT IN MLCAPES
WELL OVR 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
THE CNTRL CWA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY MATCHES UP WITH LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE ESE AT 20-25 MPH
BASED ON H7 WINDS. LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKISH SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS MAIN HAZARD FM ANY STORMS.
YET...SINCE WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN THE 8-9KFT AGL RANGE ANY ISOLD
STRONGER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL. LACK OF
STRONGER LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO END
EARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PWATS FALL TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...INDICATING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINS SHOULD FALL INTO LOW TO
MID 40S. SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE INLAND AREAS.
THIKN THE NAM IS UP TO ITS TRICKS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...BY SHOWING TOO
MOIST OF LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN TOO HIGH OF MLCAPES. TOOK OUT ANY
MENTION OF SHRA ON SATURDAY EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
INLAND AREAS AROUND 80 BASED ON MIXING TO H85 AND ONLY SCT CU.

ATTN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS ON STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS
YET AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS
UPPER LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE MORE LOCKED IN ON MOST SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME.
DRYING TREND THEN DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
MLCAPES TO BE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AS
DWPNTS SURGE UP TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS WEST CWA
CLOSER TO WI BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOWARD 30 KTS ALONG WITH THE
FORECAST INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT RISK OF STRONGER STORMS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE HELPED ALONG BY LAKE BREEZES AS
WELL. AGREE WITH DAYSHIFT FM WEDNESDAY... THAT COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. BASED ON LACK OF OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE
THOUGH...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK JUST QUITE YET.

FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY SO EXPECT MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN
TO BLO NORMAL VALUES YET AGAIN. MOST NOTABLE COOLING WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH GRADIENT NORTH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME LINGERING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE FM YESTERDAYS SHRA COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT MAINLY KIWD AND KSAW. INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR FOG IN
KSAW TAFS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH KIWD ALREADY REPORTING 1/4SM AT
TIMES...HAVE PUT THEM AT VLIFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THU.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS/SRF
MARINE...KF







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