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000
FXUS63 KMQT 152325
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SRN FLANK OF A TROUGH OVER NRN
ONTARIO TO THE SRN END OF JAMES BAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SE CORNER OF MANITOBA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND
SOME SCT/ISOLD -SHRA INTO NW MN. AT THE SFC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
PERSISTED BTWN A 995 MB LOW BTWN JAMES BAY AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND A
RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO SRN MN. WNW WINDS HAVE GUSTED AT OR
ABOVE 30 MPH OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI AND TO NEAR 45 MPH WHERE TERRAIN
HAS BOOSTED THE WINDS AT CMX. SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 750 MB HAS LOWERED DEWPOINTS TO
AROUND 30F WITH RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PCT. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DRY AIR WINDS HAS RESULTED IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AND DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES...WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. HIGHER RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST
CHANCES OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW
HALF OF UPPER MI. EVEN THERE...WITH DRY LOW LEVELS AND WEAK FORCING
WITH THE SHRTWV MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES AT MOST WOULD BE EXPECTED.
SO...ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF UPPER MI
WITH NRLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 4C NORTH TO TO 9C
SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE LOWER 70S INLAND SOUTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND FAVORABLE MIXING WILL
AGAIN DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH RH VALUES TO AROUND 25
PERCENT SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS ONLY TO AROUND 10 MPH...THE
WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE LOWER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A
WARM UP FOR SUNDAY AS SSE WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
NEARING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS POINT THE STRONGER WINDS
LOOK TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED DEW POINTS...LIMITING
SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LONGER RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON /MAINLY WEST/.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL MONDAY...WITH THE SFC LOW IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN...AS IT
WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO CROSS UPPER MI ON SUNDAY...AT LEAST OF A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. NOW IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AT THE
EARLIEST /12Z ECMWF SOLUTION/. THE GFS IS EVEN SLOWER...AND HAS THE
500MB LOW OVER ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON RETROGRADING AND CONSOLIDATING
WITH THE DEEP LOW PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL OPT FOR
FOR A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS THIS
EVNG. ALTHOUGH A WEAK LO PRES TROF WL PASS UPR MI TNGT AND A -SHRA
IS PSBL MAINLY AT IWD...DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE INDICATES VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL. HI PRES WL BUILD OVER THE UPR LKS ON THU...
BRINGING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER N-E WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

EXPECT WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 KNOTS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT OR BLO 25 KTS. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PUSHING IN FROM NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002-004>006-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB