Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 252340
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
740 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 414 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mid/upper level trough over
the wrn CONUS with a downstream ridge from the cntrl plains through
the upper MS valley into nw Ontario. At the surface, riding also
prevailed from the lower MS valley through WI to wrn Lake Superior.
Vis loop showed mostly sunny skies over most of nrn Upper Michigan
with sct/bkn cu over the south. Moisture and a weakening deformation
zone with a mid level low from OH to Lake Huron supported clouds and
light rain over far eastern Upper Michigan.

Tonight, the slowly progressive pattern will allow the sfc ridge to
build into cntrl and ern Upper Michigan. A period of partly to
mostly clear skies this evening will allow temps to drop into the
mid and upper 40s. There should also be enough mosture, dewpoints in
the mid 40s, along with the period of favorable radiational cooling
for some fog formation. 850-700mb WAA with 295k-305k isentropic lift
may also support light rain over nw WI that could spread into the
wrn cwa late. However, since the lift weakens as it moves eastward
only slight chance pops were included.

Friday, as the sfc trough moves to the east and a weak shortwave
trough lifts toward wrn Lake Superior, lower end pcpn chances across
the west half will increase, mainly during the late afternoon. Even
with temps climbing to around 70 inland, instability to support tsra
remains west of the cwa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

An active pattern is expected through the first half of the upcoming
work week; however, impacts are expected to be fairly low through
the extended.

Friday night: A weak trough/cold front is expected to slide across
the U.P. bringing a chance of rain showers to the area. Rainfall is
expected to be fairly light as the system is fairly fast moving and
overall moisture is not overly impressive. In fact, models are only
painting out about a tenth of an inch of QPF across the area.

Saturday into Saturday evening: At this point, drier air is progged
to slide across the area during this time period giving a break in
the precipitation with temperatures near to slightly above normal.
In fact, most locations will likely see sunshine through much of the
day with high temperatures warming into the upper 60s to near 70.
Clouds will begin to increase from the west Saturday evening as the
next broad trough of low pressure approaches the area.

Sunday through the rest of the extended: Broad low pressure will
slide over the Upper Great Lakes region through this time period,
allowing for mostly cloudy skies with intermittent chances for rain
showers. This will also act to push temperature back down below
normal through much of this time period due in large part to the
increased cloud cover along with showery weather. Toward the end of
this time period there may be some improvement as the low begins to
shift slowly to the east. This may lead to some drier weather and
more sunshine by late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. At this
point, will stick with a consensus of the models for the extended
due to difficulties in timing out shortwave energy sliding in around
the broad troughing.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 739 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

VFR conditions will likely prevail at KIWD/KCMX thru this fcst
period. VFR conditions will also prevail at KSAW with the exception
of late tonight/early Fri morning when radiation fog may develop.
VIS will fall to MVFR, perhaps lower. Winds at all terminals will be
light thru the period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 414 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

Expect winds under 20 kts through early next week as a relatively
flat pres gradient dominates the Upper Lakes.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JLB



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