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000
FXUS63 KMQT 180843
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
443 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

TODAY...SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
RESULTING IN RH VALUES TO NEAR 25 PCT. THERE COULD BE SOME SCT
DIURNAL CU FORMING INLAND MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...BUT THESE SCT CLOUDS WILL LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON
INSOLATION AND RESULTING MAX TEMPS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE REGION...LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 60S
CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SE
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT RETURN SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A BIT MORE MIXING
ESPECIALLY FAR WEST AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. LOOK FOR
MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE DRY WEATHER TO START OFF WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS W
AND CENTRAL AREAS EXPERIENCE INCREASED DEW POINTS THROUGH THE
DAY...AND THE SFC HIGH PUSHES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. S SFC
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10-12KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BEING PUSHED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80F. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD MIXING...A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15 TO
20KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR AREAS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...IF WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ANY STRONGER.

WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OR AT LEAST A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AT
THE SFC THROUGH FRIDAY...PESKY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
PLENTY OF HUMID AIR MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...FOG STILL LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD BET. KEPT PATCHY FOG FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO
ADD AREAS TO THE MIX AS WE NEAR THAT TIME PERIOD.

WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEAR FROM NE MN WEDNESDAY
EVENING...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THEY WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE STAYING ACROSS MAINLY ONTARIO NO BIG
CHANGES LOOKED NECESSARY TO OUR ONGOING FORECAST. THURSDAY IS NOT
QUITE A SLAM DUNK WITH MERGING LAKE BREEZES OVER INTERIOR WEST HALF
OF UPPER MI. WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW CALM OR
ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST...THE NAM IS STRONGER
WITH THE S FLOW AND DOES NOT INTRODUCE MERGING LAKE BREEZES/POP MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE LINGERING SFC TROUGH THAT SHOULD SINK FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY TO THE LAND THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS. KEPT A SMALL POCKET OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST FOR
NOW. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NW FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALOFT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

THE WET WEATHER WILL NOT BE DONE BY SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT WE WILL
BE LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF THE CURRENT 500MB LOW PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AFTER SPINNING NEAR THE SW CANADIAN BORDER ON
FRIDAY...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO S CENTRAL CANADA AND PUSH YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP FROM THE SW THANKS TO
THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY
SIGNIFICANT WAA. 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY HOVERING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO WILL BE ABLE TO JUMP INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY...AND
FURTHER RISE TO NEAR 20F DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE 850MB
WARM FRONT LINGERING OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SURGING NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
STICKY/MUGGY WEATHER INVADES FROM THE S AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 70S. WILL NOT GET INTO TOO MANY OF THE DETAILS YET...AS IT IS
STILL DAY 4...BUT MAY NEED TO START THINKING ABOUT ADDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO THE HWO WITH LATER ISSUANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN
WINDS BELOW 30KTS...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON. OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS...THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOG...FORMING WITH THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
SHOULD SET UP ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY
SINK TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A RIDGE AVERAGING
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONGER HIGH OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A TROUGH ON SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF