Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 290646
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
246 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS TROUGH. ONE SHORTWAVE IS NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG...ANOTHER IS OVER
IL. THE SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG HEADS SOUTHEAST AND AFFECTS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
THIS FORECAST.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THINGS TOO MUCH FROM THE GOING FORECAST.
LOOKS LIKE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL COME INTO PLAY AGAIN TODAY
WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING HELPING TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WENT
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL AND THEN START A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE POPS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE OUT. FOG FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
OVER THE AREA. AGREE WITH SPC OUTLOOK FOR MARGINAL OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY AS WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE UP TO
1000 J/KG AND COULD SEE A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE FOCUS ON POPS FOR
MON NGT THRU TUE AND THEN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK THRU NEXT WEEKEND.
UPR MI WL REMAIN UNDER A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT E OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG
OVER THE ROCKIES THRU MID WEEK...SO TEMPS SHOULD TEND AOB NORMAL.
THE PATTERN MAY AT LEAST TEMPORARILY EVOLVE TOWARD A MORE ZONAL FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND...SO THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF WARMER WX THEN.

MON NGT/TUE...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWV
THAT IS FCST TO DIG SSEWD THRU THE WRN LKS INTO LOWER MI BY LATE TUE
AND ACCOMPANYING AXIS OF HIER MID LVL MSTR/DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/ATTENDANT COLD FROPA. IN FACT...MANY OF THE MODELS NOW
INDICATE AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS WL LINGER THRU THE DAY ON TUE OVER THE
SE HALF OF THE CWA. SO TENDED TO PROGRESS THE HIER POPS MORE SLOWLY
TO THE SE ON MON NGT AND TUE...ESPECIALLY SINCE ANTECEDENT LLVL DRY
AIR WL BE MORE RESILIENT TO THE E. BEST CHC FOR TS WL BE ON MON EVNG
OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO UPR DVGC CORE IN
LEFT EXIT OF H3 JET MAX OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...UNDER AXIS OF
HIER H85 THETA E...AND WHERE FCST MUCAPES REACH AOA 1000 J/KG BEFORE
DIURNAL COOLING LOWERS THE INSTABILITY OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH NO
ORGANIZED SVR TS APPEAR LIKELY WITH 0-6KM SHEAR NO HIER THAN 10-20
KTS TO THE E OF RIBBON OF FASTER MID LVL NNW WINDS IN MN/NRN PLAINS
AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FCST TO BE NO HIER THAN ABOUT 6.5C/KM...
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS ON MON EVNG COULD DROP MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL OVER THE W GIVEN RELATIVELY LO WBZ NEAR 9K FT. SPC HAS PLACED
THE W HALF OF UPR MI UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS FOR DAY
2...WHICH INCLUDES MON/MON NGT.

TUE NGT THRU THU...ALTHOUGH SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE
UPR LKS UNDER NNW FLOW ALOFT BTWN RATHER DEEP UPR TROF OVER ERN
NAMERICA AND PERSISTENT RDG OVER THE W...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HI PRES AND OVERALL DRYING TREND. SOME OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE FCSTS FM SAT HINTED PWAT COULD FALL AS LO AS 0.25
INCH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES PWAT
WL NOT FALL MUCH BLO 0.75 INCH WITH A WEAKER SFC HI PRES/MORE
LINGERING LLVL MSTR. HOWEVER... DRY WX STILL APPEARS LIKELY WITH
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/LLVL ACYC FLOW DOMINATING. BUT WITH HIER
PWAT/WEAKER SFC HI PRES...IF A STRONGER SHRTWV THAN CURRENTLY FCST
WERE TO DIG INTO THE UPR LKS THRU THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THAT FEATURE
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL FAVOR
BLO NORMAL TEMPS...GENERAL TREND FOR SOMEWHAT HIER MSTR/H85 TEMPS
CLOSER TO 10-12C INDICATES THE BLO NORMAL ANOMALIES...ESPECIALLY THE
MIN TEMPS...MAY NOT BE AS SGNFT.

THU NGT THRU NEXT WEEKEND...GENERAL LONGER RANGE TREND IS FOR A MORE
DISORGANIZED/OUT OF PHASE COMPLEX OF SHRTWVS TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS
LATE THIS WEEK. SO SHOWER/TS CHANCES CENTERED AROUND FRI DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS SGNFT AS YDAY. WITH A WEAKER SFC LO PRES AS WELL...
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER WX ON JULY 4TH DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY
EITHER AS THE UPR PATTERN TENDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW. IN FACT...A
CONSENSUS OF THE MORE RECENT EXTENDED MODELS INDICATES H85 TEMPS WL
BE ABOUT 14C ON SAT UNDER A WEAK SFC HI PRES RDG...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AWAY FM LK MODERATION UNDER
MOSUNNY SKIES. SUN LOOKS TO BE A WARM DAY WITH A SW LLVL FLOW BTWN
THE DEPARTING SFC HI PRES AND APRCHG SHRTWV IN THE NRN PLAINS
LIFTING H85 TEMPS AT LEAST CLOSE TO 16C. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE SHRTWV FM THE W MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS...THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS/TS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AROUND KIWD HAS RESULTED
IN FOG DEVELOPING AT KIWD. VIS AT KIWD WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE
OVERNIGHT AS PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS DRIFT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...
OVERALL...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY PREVAIL AS IT APPEARS THERE
WON`T BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER TO DISRUPT THE RADIATION FOG.
KCMX/KSAW SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP TODAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/BUILDING OF
INSTABILITY AND APPROACH OF DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT. UNTIL
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT BECOMES CERTAIN...VCSH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NOTED IN THE FCST AT ALL TERMINALS. IF ANY OF THE
TERMINALS ARE IMPACTED BY PCPN THIS AFTN/EVENING...CONDITIONS COULD
FALL TO MVFR OR EVEN LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. LATE IN THIS FCST
PERIOD AND MORE LIKELY JUST BEYOND...IT APPEARS IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS MAY SET IN AS WINDS BECOME UPSLOPE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07



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