Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 180519
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
119 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017

Only concerns will be winds tomorrow with S gales to 35 kts possible
over the Lake Michigan zones and 25-35 mph gusts over land. The
winds will result as a trough/cold front moves in from the W,
increasing the pressure gradient. Confidence in wind speeds is high.
Otherwise, no significant weather is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017

Wednesday night through Friday night: Fairly quiet weather is
expected through this time period as high pressure will remain in
control. A quick passing cold front will slide through Wednesday
night; however, this will be mainly dry with only an increase in
cloud cover expected. Aloft, upper level ridging in place will keep
temperatures above normal through this time period, in fact, many
places will be around 15 to 20 degrees above normal through this
time period. For perspective, average temperatures this time of year
area right around the low 50s.

Saturday into Sunday: An upper level trough is expected to slide
from the Plains eastward through the Upper Great Lakes region
through this time period. At the surface, the associated surface low
is expected to slide north of the area, and remain mainly over
Canada. This will drag a cold front through the Upper Peninsula
Saturday afternoon and then to the east of the area by Sunday
evening. There are some differences in the timing of the front, the
EC is slower with the fropa and the GFS is faster.  If the EC is
correct, the rain showers will linger into Sunday evening, while the
GFS would have the U.P. drying out by early Sunday afternoon.
Current trends would have roughly a half inch of precip across the
area by Sunday afternoon. There may be just enough instability
around for Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening for a few
thunderstorms; however, thunderstorm potential does look to be
fairly marginal.

The rest of the extended: There may be a brief break in the
precipitation Sunday night; however, another low pressure system is
expected to slide through for Monday into Tuesday. There are some
major differences in intesnsity with this system as the previous run
of the GFS had a very strong low and upper level trough bringing
gusty winds and colder air, while the latest GFS and EC have the
system much weaker.  It still looks to be fairly unsettled for this
time period with intermittent chances of rain and near to below
normal temperatures. At this point, will stick with model consesnus
as confidence remains low on the details of this system.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 119 AM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

Under a dry air mass, VFR conditions will continue at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
thru this fcst period. Strengthening winds above nocturnal inversion
will lead to LLWS overnight. Then, as mixing increases under daytime
heating today, winds will become gusty to 20-30kt at all terminals.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 333 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017

Expect southwest winds to 20 kts or less into tonight. Another
period of stronger southwest winds up to 30 kts is expected Wed into
Wed evening with winds becoming west later Wed night into Thu. Could
be close to gales during this period, but right now looks to stay
just below. South winds should stay 15 to 25 knots Fri into Sat
ahead of next cold front that moves through late in the weekend.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Titus



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