Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 031736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1236 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

No significant impacts in the short term. Will see light LES
gradually diminishing today as a ridge moves overhead. After the
ridge passes and ahead of a shortwave/SFC trough, southerly flow
tonight will push any remaining Lake Superior LES offshore and may
bring some lake effect rain/snow showers along northern Lake

Highs today will be in the 30s, lows tonight will range from the
upper teens interior W to the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

Upper pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over Mexico 12z Sun
with a shortwave over the northern plains. There is also a shortwave
over the Canadian Rockies. This shortwave will move into the
Canadian Prairies 12z Mon and the shortwave will then dig into the
northern plains 12z Tue. Nam brings in some deeper moisture and 850-
500 mb q-vector convergence Sun and both move out Sun night. Could
see up to 2 inches of snow out of this event for Sun and Sun night.
Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a broad and deep 500 mb trough
across most of the U.S. with a strong shortwave over the northern
plains 12z Tue. Behind this shortwave is very cold air in the
northern Rockies. A closed 500 mb low forms with this shortwave and
moves slowly east in western Ontario 12z Wed. This closed low makes
it east into the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu and the associated trough
makes it into the ern U.S. 12z Fri. Interesting thing is airmass
does not look as cold now as it did for the 00z Fri run yesterday as
all the models now break off a piece of the colder air while keeping
it mostly over Canada which was a change from yesterday.
Temperatures will go below normal and stay there this forecast
period. There will also be some lake effect snow and this is covered
well in the forecast.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

As a sfc hi pres rdg shifts to the e and the s wind component
increases, expect lo clds impacting IWD and CMX to dspt with the
stronger downsloping and give way to VFR conditions. As this flow
taps more mstr off Lk MI late tngt, lo clds and MVFR cigs wl impact
SAW. More lo clds/MVFR cigs wl arrive at IWD late in the TAF period
ahead of an area of -sn that wl be aprchg fm the w.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 342 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

Winds stay 25 kts or less through Mon as the pressure gradient
remains light. An approaching low pressure trough crossing Tue night
into Wed will result in southerly winds increasing 25-30 kts Mon
night and Tue, strongest over central and eastern sections. Winds
shifting northwest on Wed could reach 30 kts as well.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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