Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 030854
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
454 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRIME CONCERNS IN LONG TERM INCLUDE EXTENT/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY AND MAX TEMPS. FOG WILL ALSO BE ISSUE
AT TIMES WITH HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
LABOR DAY.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. REMNANT OF
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH ATTM MEANDERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
AND MAY DRIFT TOWARD EAST CWA BY EVENING. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TOO
DRY FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH GENERAL EAST SFC WINDS COMING OUT OF HIGH
OVER QUEBEC. SLIGHTLY DRIER TOO WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DWPNTS
INSTEAD OF UPR 60S-NEAR 70. COULD BE FOG AROUND TO START DAY BUT
THAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HELD DOWN BY OVERALL FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. EXPECT MID 80S INTERIOR WEST AND UPR 70S NEAR 80 OVER REST OF
CWA.

EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE DRAWS CLOSE ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO
BRING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITY BACK TO THE AREA...ADVECTING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SW MEAN LAYER H85-H3 WINDS. EDGE OF MUCAPE OVER
1000J/KG AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. ECMWF AND GFS ALSO
BOTH SHOWING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MN AND LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. INCREASING H85 JET
RAMPS UP MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER MN SO HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD THEM INTO FAR WEST
CWA ON SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN VCNTY
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND GIVEN THE HIGHER MUCAPES. MLCAPES ALSO PUSH UP
TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING AFTN SO THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TRY
TO FORM DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND POSSIBLY AFFECTS FM THE
SHORTWAVE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FOG AROUND TO START DAY AGAIN. SE
WINDS ADDING MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO BEST BET FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. ONCE FOG EVADES...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM QUITE A BIT OVER FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS PUSHING 19-20C BY AFTN
AND MORE OF A SOUTH WIND COMPARED TO FRIDAY POINT TO MID-UPR 80S FOR
MOST WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT
NIGHT IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AT SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. MUCAPES REMAIN HIGH AT
1000-2000J/KG FM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. IF
SHORTWAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA PUSH OVER WEST
HALF OF CWA AT LEAST WITH H85-H3 WINDS FM THE WSW. UNLIKE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SIMILAR SETUP...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER AS
1-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. LOW-LEVEL JET AT H85 OVER 40 KTS
IS AIMED TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AT LEAST WESTERN
FRINGE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT SURE IF GREATER MLCAPES WELL TO SW
OF HERE WILL KEEP MAIN SHRA/TSRA THERE SINCE THE SHORTWAVE IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH. CARRIED CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CWA...SLIGHT CHANCES
FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
REMOTE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN BY LATEST DAY3
OUTLOOK FM SPC.

STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES FM ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BOTTOMS OUT AT 990-1000MB OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONTINUAL FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF SHRA/TSRA WITHIN H85 JET AXIS AND JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. NEVER
SURE HOW FAR SHRA/TSRA WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT AS WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING FM A YET TO BE DETERMINED SHORTWAVE THERE CAN ALWAYS
BE CAPPING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WEST CWA FOR BETTER
CHANCES AT THIS POINT WITH WSW MEAN LAYER WINDS. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. H85 RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT POINTS TO
READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT AS LONG AS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA DONT DISRUPT
THINGS TOO MUCH. PUT THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY OVER CNTRL CWA
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR
READINGS TO HIT 90 DEGREES WOULD BE BARAGA/BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE/HARVEY/MUNISING.

ALL THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD EASE EAST ACROSS REST OF CWA AS
THE MAIN SFC-H85 FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE AND RIBBON OF
PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MLCAPES OVER
1000J/KG INITIALLY BUT THESE TAIL OFF WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING.
MUCAPES WELL OVER 1000J/KG MAY ALLOW STORMS TO TRY TO BECOME
ELEVATED AFTER BECOMING SFC BASED...BUT THAT IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
TRANSITION. STRONG H85 JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
OF HIGHER MUCAPES WILL AID THIS TRANSITION THOUGH. CONSENSUS HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS SEEMED FINE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER
POPS ON LABOR DAY END UP BEING OVER EAST HALF WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE EXITING SFC-H85 FRONT. H85 TEMPS DO NOT CRASH
DOWN AS IT LOOKED LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO...SO UPR 70S TO LOW OR
POSSIBLY MID 80S WILL WORK FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY. WARMEST READINGS
CNTRL CWA IRON MTN TO MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. THROUGH THE COOLING IS
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT...THE DRYING IS WITH DWPNTS FALLING OFF INTO THE
50S ON MONDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND DOWN TO AROUND 50 BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE 40S DWPNTS ON TUESDAY AS COOLING
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. EXPECT HIGHS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE AND
THEN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR WED. GUSTY WINDS AS THE COOLING OCCURS
ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PRETTY WELL AGREED
UPON BY GFS AND ECMWF FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLOUDS THINNING OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS
AFTER SUNRISE...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN AT ALL
TERMINALS. MAY HAVE A RETURN OF SOME FOG TONIGHT...PROBABLY JUST
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD



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