000
FXUS63 KMQT 161557
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1157 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS
BASED OFF LATEST TRENDS IN THE HIGH RES MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. FIRST...THINK THE INITIAL LOCATION FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THIS IS WHERE THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER
60S BEHIND THE FOG THAT LEFT A COUPLE HOURS AGO. THAT INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED ML CAPE VALUES TO 500
J/KG AND WILL RISE A LITTLE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WITH THAT INSTABILITY AND LAKE BREEZE ALREADY AFFECTING THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...THINK THE INSTABILITY WILL BUILD THE CU
ALREADY DEVELOPING THERE INTO SHOWERS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. AS THAT DEVELOPS...WOULD THINK IT WOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY BASED OFF MODEL STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
35KTS.

THE REST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN LIMITED BY THE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY
AIR OVER THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASED MOISTURE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A THIN POCKET OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN 800-700MB...DON/T THINK THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ESPECIALLY SINCE
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING OUT AND ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 50S
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ONCE THIS
MOISTURE ARRIVES...IT WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE WINNIPEG AND INCREASED INSTABILITY IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA TO INITIATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THEN...AS
THOSE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.

FINALLY...THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A
SMALL POCKET OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE FOG
OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TODAY...AFTER PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING AS FCST SNDGS SHOW A
LOT OF DRY AIR FM 850-500 MB. THIS DRY AIR IS FCST TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG BEGINS TO SHEAR AND OPEN UP WHILE SENDING PIECES OF ENERGY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW VALUES
IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BY AFTERNOON THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL HELP PUSH AN
ELONGATED SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING
800-500MB MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP FORM SOME HIGH BASED DIURNAL
CU. MODIFIED FCST SNDGS INDICATE 400-600 J/KG CAPE AVAILABLE SO KEPT
IN SOME SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS (20-30 PCT) FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE CONVERGING
LAKE BREEZES COULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. EXPECT THE SEVERE
THREAT TO BE LIMITED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM DUE TO FAIRLY
TALL/SKINNY CAPE AS NAM SNDGS SHOW NCAPE VALUES 0.1 OR
LESS...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE.
GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS COULD MAYBE BE A CONCERN OVER FAR SCNTRL CWA
WHERE NAM SHOWS DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND AN INVERTED V
LOOK TO FCST SNDGS. AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE SVR RISK IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN HWO.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT GETS SHEARED ESE IN THE FLOW BTWN RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND AMPLIFYING ERN CANADA TROF. MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP LAYER
Q-VECT CONV PASSING BY TO THE SW AND S OF UPPER MI TONIGHT/MON.
AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE JUST CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY HIGHEST POPS OVER WEST HALF CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING FROM
PASSING SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM WILL NOT CHANGE DRAMATICALLY...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES IN SIGHT. EXPECT 500MB LOW PRESSURE TO
REMAIN OVER NE CANADA AND HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

WILL START OUT MONDAY WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...THANKS TO
COOL N FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR /850MB TEMPS NEAR 7C ALONG THE SHORE/
AND THE 500MB SHORTWAVE BREAKING UP THE WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN FROM NE MN AND ONTARIO EARLY...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 500MB LOW SPINNING NEAR
JAMES BAY ON MONDAY WILL SWING ANOTHER WAVE DOWN FROM ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE
SFC. FEW CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR W
HALF OF UPPER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...AS
THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY SINKS ACROSS LOWER MI. EXPECT A SLOW AND STEADY
WARMUP EACH DAY...WITH LAKE BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...COOLING
DOWN NEAR SHORE AREAS. WAA WILL INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 10C BY THE END OF THE DAY.

THERE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...OR MORE THAN LIKELY JUST INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON OUR QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT.

ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY WET PERIOD POP WISE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IT WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND
THIS PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS IS TO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FAR EASTERN
AREAS A BIT DRIER...WITH A SFC LOW ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO STAY
TO OUR SOUTH...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TOWARD LAKE MI AND LOWER MI
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THAT OCCURS...IT WILL GIVE THE EAST END OF UPPER
MI A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING A WETTING RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

EXPECT HIGHER CUMULUS CLOUD DECK TO FORM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON. CHC OF SHRA/TSRA IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT ANY OF
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AS UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOC SFC
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...INCLUDED A MENTION OF SHRA
AT KIWD AND VCSH AT KCMX. LATER ARRIVAL OF TROUGH WARRANTED ONLY A
VCSH MENTION AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CLOUD
DECK TO MOVE TO TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT WITH ONSET OF NE FLOW IN WAKE
OF TROUGH.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...TYPICAL OF THE
WARM SEASON. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG PATCHES THRU SUN EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SURGE S INTO THE AREA. IF SOME RAINFALL OCCURS
OVER THE LAKE...FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO FORM AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD/DENSE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS