Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 040804
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
304 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...LEADING TO A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE THAT OCCURS...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRESENT. 925-850MB
MEAN WIND DIRECTION IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL FOCUS
ON THOSE AREAS INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOWNWIND OF THE ASSUMED
OPEN ICE AREAS AFTER THE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL BACK WINDS
TO THE WEST AND HAVE THE LAKE EFFECT FOLLOW SUIT WHILE DIMINISHING
(DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR). WINDS INITIALLY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTWARD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THAT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONE
FINAL ITEM OF NOTE...WITH THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AND WEAKENING WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY SOME -20S IN THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN OUR 10MPH
CRITERIA...COULD STILL SEE SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -25 AND
DECIDED TO ADD INTO THE HWO.

AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE AREA
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN MOST
CASES...THESE WAVES WILL BE WEAK AND THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN ONTARIO. THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE 850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY
WARMER THAN -12C. 850MB TEMPS DO LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND -16C ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BUT WINDS DURING THAT
PERIOD BACK VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING
AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THE STRONGEST WAVE AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BUT EVEN IN THAT CASE...WOULDN/T EXPECT
MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING.

BEHIND THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE LAST MONTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING ON THIS TRANSITION
AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. USING A CONSENSUS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAVORABLE
THAW/FREEZE CYCLE ON MOST DAYS...BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
COMPACTION AND MELTING LINGERING SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HAVE COMBINED
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDUCE VSBY TONIGHT IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED KIWD AND ESPECIALLY THE KCMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
EXTENSIVE BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCMX LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS
WNW WINDS DIE DOWN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS


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