000
FXUS63 KMQT 160748
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
348 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE AREA A COUPLE SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE
RIDGE. THE FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PRODUCE
THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER THE WEST AND THEN THE DIMINISHING
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA FROM
THE LOW IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. POCKET OF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
STARTING TO NOSE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES...AS
HINTED AT BY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR...AND HAVE BEEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON
TWO FEATURES...THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. THIS EVENING AND
THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST
MN. THEY BOTH SEEM TO BE INTERACTING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS INDICATED BY THE HRRR THIS
MORNING...WOULD EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOP AND
PUSH NORTHEAST INITIALLY BEFORE THE STORM MOTIONS TAKE THEM MORE
EASTERLY AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. ML CAPES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO
THIN AND INCREASE HEATING. THE ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ALSO ROUNDING THE RIDGE...THAT SHOULD FOCUS THE BEST FORCING ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED AND STORM MOTION WOULD
TRACK THE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT...WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT SINCE NCAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.1 AND DCAPE
VALUES STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE 700 J/KG AS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DISSIPATE.

FARTHER NORTHWEST...THE UPPER LOW SPINNING IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MN/ND/CANADA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRACK EAST THIS
EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO
DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT WITH THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES...WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE THE TROUGH AND CONVECTION SLIDE THROUGH...DRY
MID LEVEL AIR WILL SURGE OVER THE AREA AND LEAD TO A FAIRLY QUIET
NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OFF
THE LAKE WITH THE SHOWERS UPSTREAM...HAVE ADDED IN FOG OVER EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH THE KEWEENAW...SINCE THERE IS A DENCENT
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND THERE ARE 50S AND LOW 60S DEWPOINTS
MOVING OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUDS HAVE OBSCURED THE LAKE TO SEE IF ANY FOG IS
GOING...BUT SHIP OBS HAVE YET TO REPORT FOG.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO START OFF ON THE NICE SIDE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...AS THE AREA IS STILL UNDER THE 900-500MB DRY AIR. THIS
DRY AIR WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER
LOW WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG SHEARS OFF AND STARTS TO SEND PIECES OF
ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW
VALUES IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

AS FOR FORCING FEATURES...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH WILL BE RE-FOCUSING EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS
THE MAIN AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOLLOWS THAT SAME TRACK. THIS WILL
LEAVE A SURFACE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL START TO DROP SOUTH OVER UPPER MICHIGAN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THAT OCCURS...THE INCREASING 850-750MB
MOISTURE SHOULD SPARK SOME HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU. WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 400J/KG...QUESTION COMES TO IF THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DECENT DRY AIR ABOVE 650MB WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THINGS...BUT DID INCLUDE SLIGHTS AND LOW END CHANCES FROM MID
AFTERNOON ON IN CASE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH ARRIVES A
LITTLE QUICKER. IF THERE WASN/T THE INVERTED V LOOK TO THE
SOUNDINGS WITH THE MIXING TO 800-700MB WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES SEEN IN THE NAM...ML CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...AND BOOSTED POPS UP MORE. EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE
LIMITED WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UNLESS THE NAM SOLUTION
VERIFIES. THIS IS DUE TO THE CAPE IS FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY WITH NCAPE
VALUES BELOW 0.1 ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE. GUSTY WINDS COULD BE A CONCERN WITH THAT INVERTED V
LOOK...DCAPE VALUES OVER 750 J/KG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL...AND
EXISTING WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KTS OVER THE WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM WILL NOT CHANGE DRAMATICALLY...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES IN SIGHT. EXPECT 500MB LOW PRESSURE TO
REMAIN OVER NE CANADA AND HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

WILL START OUT MONDAY WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...THANKS TO
COOL N FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR /850MB TEMPS NEAR 7C ALONG THE SHORE/
AND THE 500MB SHORTWAVE BREAKING UP THE WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN FROM NE MN AND ONTARIO EARLY...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 500MB LOW SPINNING NEAR
JAMES BAY ON MONDAY WILL SWING ANOTHER WAVE DOWN FROM ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE
SFC. FEW CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR W
HALF OF UPPER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...AS
THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY SINKS ACROSS LOWER MI. EXPECT A SLOW AND STEADY
WARMUP EACH DAY...WITH LAKE BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...COOLING
DOWN NEAR SHORE AREAS. WAA WILL INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 10C BY THE END OF THE DAY.

THERE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...OR MORE THAN LIKELY JUST INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON OUR QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY WET PERIOD POP WISE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IT
WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS
IS TO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FAR EASTERN AREAS A BIT DRIER...WITH A SFC
LOW ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES
TOWARD LAKE MI AND LOWER MI SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THAT OCCURS...IT WILL
GIVE THE EAST END OF UPPER MI A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING A WETTING
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE THE FCST A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. TEMPO
IFR VIS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AT IWD AND SAW WITH FOG AND THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH MIXING
TAKING PLACE DURING THE DAY. AT CMX EXPECT LIFR TO VLIFR VSBY IN FOG
AS IT ADVECTS IN OFF THE LAKE. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT CMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...TYPICAL OF THE
WARM SEASON. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG PATCHES THRU SUN EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SURGE S INTO THE AREA. IF SOME RAINFALL OCCURS
OVER THE LAKE...FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO FORM AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD/DENSE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...ROLFSON