Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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439
FXUS63 KMQT 022334
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
734 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO
THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NRN
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS BROUGHT LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE TO UPPER
MI WITH INLAND CU INLAND WEST AND NEAR LAKE MI OVER THE EAST.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING WAA MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM DEVELOPING SW
GRADIENT WIND BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN CLIMB TOWARD
SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND EAST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE 40 NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WEST.

TUESDAY...THE VIGOROUS NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO THE NRN LAKES BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH
THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE
200-400 J/KG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES... TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES INTO THE
25-35 PCT RANGE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z WED THAT
DIGS SOUTHWARD ON WED AND DIGS A DEEP TROUGH THAT AFFECTS THE EAST
COAST 00Z FRI. THE NAM TAKES SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE CWA 00Z WED AND MOVES IT OUT ON WED.
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL AND WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. DID KEEP PCPN
IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. KEPT IT
DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THEN LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THU MORNING.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 500 MB TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS
AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z FRI. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES 12Z FRI THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE
AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ON MON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THIS
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS



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