Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 312345
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
745 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE MAIN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE THE LINGERING COOL AIR FOR THE END OF MAY/START OF
JUNE...AND THE THICKNESS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A E-W ORIENTATED
ACROSS W AND CENTRAL ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SINK ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY /DEVELOPING A
LOW NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY/.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS TO BE A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT /NO LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 20KTS PLUS TO DEAL WITH/. TAKING A LOOK
AT THE FCST SOUNDINGS...WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS ALL THE
WAY UP THROUGH 700MB. PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 0.25IN AND
0.45IN...WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER MI. THIS
WILL LINE UP WELL WITH THE SFC HIGH/RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA.
HAVE HOISTED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER
MI...WITH FROST ADVISORIES OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR E.
EXPECT THE COOLEST AIR TO SLIDE IN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F HIGHER MONDAY ON LIGHT E WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS AS
THE SFC HIGH ORIENTS ITSELF OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF LONG TERM FORECAST IS LOOKING TRANQUIL WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO NORMAL. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS HANGING BACK OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. MONDAY NIGHT WITH YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FROST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE MILDER ACROSS THE WEST OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

MAIN UPPER TROUGHING MOST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN INTO ONTARIO.
MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MN BY LATE WED NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.P...ESPECIALLY ON WED AT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND WEAK LOW TO THE WEST. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND
BEGIN TO FLIRT WITH FAR WESTERN LAKES SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P.
BY WED AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE U.P. ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH OVERALL UPPER SUPPORT ON
THE WANE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS JAMES BAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO...LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN UPPER MICHIGAN. ONCE
AGAIN...OVERALL UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LIMITED IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND JUST EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT A SLIGHT
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...DRY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.

MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE
WEST BY LATE SUNDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE INCREASE BY THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS WITH LAKE
BREEZES EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING...AND SLOWLY EXIT SE ACROSS LAKE MI AND LAKE
HURON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT TO
FILL AS IT SLIDES ACROSS N MN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHILE EDGING
A TROUGH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER N ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-004>006-009>011-013-084.

  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001-003-007-012-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF


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