Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 031950
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER AT KSAW AND MAINLY SHOWERS
AT KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF SHOWERS OCCUR AT KIWD
OR KSAW THIS AFTERNOON...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS


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