Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 231944
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
244 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TIED TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE 998MB LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY HAS
LED TO A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MUCH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. THE STRONGEST WIND GUST THUS FAR WAS REPORTED AT
ROCK OF AGES AT 5Z WITH A GUST OF 50KTS. OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...GUSTS
HAVE BEEN IN THE 30-35MPH RANGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF AND 20-30MPH
OVER THE EAST. THESE WINDS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...HAVE LED
TO TEMPERATURES BECOMING STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RISING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVER THE LAST HOUR...HAVE SEEN THE PRECIPITATION
START TO OCCUR AT KCMX AND THAT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA TODAY.

TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM...ONE OF WHICH WILL BE TIED TO AN EMBEDDED WAVE WITHIN THE
LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE STRONGER OF THE TWO PRECIPITATION AREAS
HAS STARTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE U.P.
TODAY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TIED TO THE DEEPER FORCING ON THE 285-
300K SURFACES AND SEPARATED FROM THE STRONGEST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO ESCANABA (QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.1-0.25IN)...WHILE
AREAS FARTHER TO THE WEST WILL SEE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH. A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...TIED TO THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF
ENERGY AND NOSE OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PRODUCING FREEZING RAIN...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND BRUSH THE WESTERN
U.P. NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. OVERALL...BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING
PRECIPITATION FOR A 3-5HR PERIOD TODAY.

STILL SOME VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE...BUT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (NAM/RAP/GEM-REGIONAL) ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE NOSE OF 1-2C AIR BETWEEN 850-800MB MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THAT SHOULD BE AMPLE TO LEAD TO SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW
FALLING FROM ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A WINTRY MIX
(RAIN...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN) AS THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.P. WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND MIDOT
ROAD TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S...ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION WOULD
FREEZE ON THE SURFACE AND LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED
ROADS/SIDEWALKS. WITH LIGHT ICING REPORTED UPSTREAM IN
MINNESOTA...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED IN THERE BEING A QUICK 1-2 HOUR
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLIPPERY ROADS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS. BUT
CONFIDENCE WASN/T HIGH ENOUGH FOR A LONG DURATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING QUICKLY
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY.
INSTEAD...WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE WINTRY MIX AND
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN TO PRODUCE SLIPPERY ROADS. MEANWHILE
OVER THE EAST...THE WARM NOSE WON/T MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO MELT ANY OF THE SNOW. THUS...WITH THE EXPECTED SNOW RATIOS AROUND
10-1 DURING THAT BURST OF SNOW...WOULD EXPECT A VERY QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW (MAYBE A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR NEWBERRY).

BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT A FEW HOUR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA AND BEFORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN. THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
UPSLOPING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE
(NEARLY THE ENTIRE CLOUD IS WARMER THAN -8C) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THAT DRIZZLE...AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES COOL...TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING IS LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN. THIS IS DUE TO DELTA-
T VALUES BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT ONLY BEING
AROUND 6. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT...EXPECT MORE ICE CRYSTALS TO ENTER THE CLOUDS AND STARTED TO
TRANSITION TOWARDS BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z SUN WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THIS MOISTURE STAYS AGAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA AND ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR NORTHEAST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BELTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. NEXT ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM COMES IN FOR MON AND HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE CWA AS TRACK OF SYSTEM AGAIN LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z TUE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -13C. A SFC
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE AND THE CWA IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WED WITH A COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH
LATER ON WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THU WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GOING
BACK BELOW NORMAL. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
WED NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE TO FEW HOURS BEFORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST AT KIWD AND BEST AT
KSAW. CONDITIONS AT KSAW WILL DETERIORATE MORE RAPIDLY SAT MORNING
AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO A MORE NLY
DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

A 998MB LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS
MORNING WILL SWEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE IN PLACE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS IN
THE 35-45KT RANGE. THERE WAS EVEN A GUST LATE YESTERDAY EVENING AT
ROCK OF AGES THAT REACHED 50KTS. THESE GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND MID MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AT
15-25KTS. DID EXTEND THE GALE WARNING FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER DIMINISHING TREND THIS MORNING. THESE WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 25KTS FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE A TRAILING
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AT 20-30KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN QUICKLY NOSE SOUTHEAST INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING AND DIMINISH THE WINDS WHILE VEERING THEM
TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SLIDE THROUGH WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO
20KTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS CLIPPER AND KEEP WINDS 20KTS OR BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF



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