Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 221749
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1249 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT FM NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE IS VCNTY OF
JAMES BAY WHILE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR WASHINGTON DC.
WARMER AIR IS STREAMING OVERHEAD BUT LOW-LEVEL WARMING HAS BEEN
SLOWER AS DOME OF COLD AIR IS STUBBORN TO LEAVE. TWO AREAS WHERE
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS MORE PRONOUCED ARE OVER FAR EAST CWA...VCNTY
OF KERY...AS SEEN IN THE T/TD OF 35/29. COMPARE THAT TO THE FIRE WX
RAWS SITES JUST TO THE WEST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND ALGER COUNTY...WITH
DWPNTS STILL IN THE TEENS WHILE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. OTHER
AREA THAT IS SEEING SOME MOISTENING IS OVER FAR SW UPR MICHIGAN...
WITH KIWD SHOWING A T/TD OF 30/27 AT 09Z. DRIZZLE CHANCES ARE THE
MAIN ISSUE TODAY AS GRADUAL WARMING CONTINUES.

LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY CONTINUES EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EAST COAST DRIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC. WEAKENING SW WIND WILL KEEP
TRANSPORTING GREATER MOISTURE FM THE SW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
KEPT CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR TWO MAIN AREAS WHERE
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALREADY NOTED. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
AROUND BUT TOO MUCH DRY AIR BLO CLOUD BASE TO HAVE ANY DRIZZLE. WARM
AIR ADVECTION BACKS OFF SOME BY AFTN...SO HAVE ENDED DRIZZLE CHANCES
ALL AREAS BY THAT TIME. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE...REACHING THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTN. FIRST TIME IN OVER 10
DAYS OF SEEING TEMPS REACHING THE 30S...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FIRST
TIME SINCE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NOVEMBER THAT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL END UP
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHING MOVES TO NORTHERN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHILE ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST FM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT AHEAD OF WHAT ENDS UP BEING AN
ELONGATED TROUGH DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. LINGERING DRY
LOW-LEVELS WILL BE NON-ISSUE TONIGHT WITH THE MOISTENING THAT OCCURS
THROUGHOUT TODAY. SO...EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE AND EVEN
SOME LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL AS DWPNTS
CLIMB TO THE FREEZING MARK OR EVEN ABOVE BY LATE TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING THE DRIZZLE WILL BE OVER CNTRL CWA WITH UPSLOPE
LIFT HELPING OUT THE CHANCES...AND OVER THE EAST CWA WITH ADDED
MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN DUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY START OFF NIGHT STEADY...BUT BEGIN TO RISE ONCE
THE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL STILL LOOKS
QUIET ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AT THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE DRIZZLE ENDS UP
MORE OF AN ISSUE EITHER TODAY OR TONIGHT...IT COULD BECOME TRICKY ON
ROADS THAT ARE CLEAR OF SNOW MAINLY DUE TO THE COLD GROUND TEMPS.
THEY ARE ALREADY SEEING THIS DOWN IN PARTS OF WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IF THE DRIZZLE DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 559 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A VERY ACTIVE WEEK IS IN STORE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A
POTENT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DIGS SE AND CARVES OUT A MID-LVL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT SURGE OF WARM AIR ACROSS
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
A SHORT PERIOD. FORCING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A BATCH OF MODERATE RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A QUICK
TRANSITION BACK TO WINTER WILL THEN TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...BRINGING STRONG CAA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

SUN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW PRES RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO
THE STRONG PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE SRN STREAM
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS
WILL HELP PULL THIS SYSTEM NORTH AND WITH THE SUBSEQUENT PHASING THE
SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN BASICALLY BOMBING OUT INTO THE
970S MB BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE UPPER LAKES MON MORNING. THE
GFS/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE NOW ALL IN FAIRLY AGREEMENT SHOWING A SFC
LOW TRACK TOWARD THE MACKINAC STRAITS BY MON MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS
OF THE GEM-NH AND GFS SHOW A DEEPER LOW (IN THE LOW 970S) WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWS A LOW PRES CENTER IN HIGH 970S. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
PCPN ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN FOR UPPER MI
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN WILL LIKELY BE MORE IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE SUN MORNING AS SFC-BASED MOIST LAYER STAYS ABOVE
FREEZING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE DGZ REGION. MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SHOWING BEST SURGE OF RAIN INTO UPPER MI LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUN NIGHT. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE SUPPORTING THE RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THE
GREATEST PCPN...PERHAPS MORE THAN ONE INCH...TO OCCUR OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.

MON INTO MON NIGHT...AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NNE AND THE COLUMN COOLS
UNDER FALLING HEIGHTS...MODELS INDICATE DEFORMATION/COMMA HEAD PCPN
SHIELD DEVELOPING. THE FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE
STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THIS DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD AND WHERE
IT WILL SET UP. 00Z MODELS NOW HINTING THAT BEST DEFORMATION/MOST
PERSISTENT 700 MB FGEN FORCING WILL BE OVER THE WRN COUNTIES WHERE
PCPN WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW MON MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS
COOLING TO AROUND -12C LATE MON...LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO COME
INTO PLAY. STILL HAVE THE WRN CWA PEGGED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG WITH
BLUSTERY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND EHWO GRIDS. WITH MODEL AVERAGED QPF OF .5-.7
AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS NEAR 10/1 MON MORNING RAISING TO 20/1 LATE MON
NIGHT...HAVE COME UP WITH 24 HR SNOW TOTALS OF 7-9 INCHES OVER SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF WEST FROM KIWD UP TO KCMX. THE SNOW/WIND
WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA AS WELL...BUT WITH DEFORMATION
PCPN TENDING TO LIFT NE...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTER THAN OVER
THE W.

WITH 850MB TEMPS FM -12C TO -14C TUE...NW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
TRANSITION TO PURE LES AS TROF SHIFTS E AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS.
WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THERE WILL BE A
DIMINISHING OF NW FLOW LES THRU THE DAY NEAR THE LAKE...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING OVER
THESE AREAS.

HEADING INTO WED/THU...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SNOW TUE NIGHT
...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE SNOW WED
INTO THANKSGIVING AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW INDICATIONS OF A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
GFS IS QUITE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM-NH/UKMET WITH THIS
WAVE AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. THE ECMWF SOLN SHOWS
A BIT DEEPER SYSTEM AND MORE PROLONGED TROFFING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD MORE SNOW. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO
GRIDS AT LEAST A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR COUNTIES.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW RIDGING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST BY
NEXT FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO LES FOR NW
FLOW AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WERE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERECAST IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN CNTRL UPPER
MI EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUING MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN LOWERING
OF CIGS TONIGHT. BASED ON UPSTREAM CIGS THIS MORNING OVER
IA/MN/WI...EXPECT CIGS TO FALL TO IFR LATE TONIGHT...OR EVEN
LIFR...AS THE MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL BE ONLY BE ADDED TO BY
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND HELPED ALONG BY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW AT
KCMX AND KSAW. AT THESE SITES....PROBABLY WILL SEE DRIZZLE AND FOG
AS WELL WITH VSBY LIKELY REACHING IFR LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SW GALES ARE DIMINISHING TO 30 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 30 KTS BY THE AFTN WITH LOSS OF TIGHTER SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN 30
KTS OR LESS. WINDS VARIABLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH CROSSES LAKE
SUPERIOR. DEEPENING LOW THEN MOVES TO EAST OF LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES 40-45 KTS MONDAY AFTN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR BTWN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA





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