Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 201151
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
651 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS BACK UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIME AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NOW
CLOSED LOW OF 998MB JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GEORGIAN BAY THAT LEAD
TO THIS TRANSITION CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A 1002MB TRAILS TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS LOCATED
OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THESE TWO
FEATURES HAS LED TO THAT WNW-NW WIND LAKE EFFECT FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN
CWA AND CONTINUING AT THE PRESENT TIME. OVER THE WEST...LAKE EFFECT
CONTINUES FROM GOGEBIC COUNTY THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH
A COUPLE STRONGER BANDS SEEN ON THE KDLH RADAR AND AFFECTING KIWD
AND ALSO AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AND
WHITE PINE. DID RECEIVE SOME REPORTS OF GRAUPEL MIXING IN WITH THE
SNOW YESTERDAY...LIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPDRAFTS AND
CONVECTIVE LOOK TO SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR YESTERDAY
EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY...LIMITED SNOWFALL REPORTS LAST EVENING MAKES
IT DIFFICULT TO GET PERSPECTIVE ON HOW MUCH SNOW HAS FALLEN THUS
FAR...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE SOME WARNING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS HAS STRETCHED SOME
OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS INTO IRON/DICKINSON/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES...BUT THEY HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE GOT FARTHER AWAY FROM
THEIR SOURCE. OVER THE KEWEENAW...KMQT RADAR SHOWS A STRONGER BAND
THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF KEWEENAW COUNTY (
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAC LA BELLE) BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN TRANSIENT
ENOUGH TO KEEP ACCUMULATIONS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH. OVER THE
EAST...THERE WAS A GOOD BURST OF SNOW YESTERDAY EVENING AS A MESO
LOW CAME ONSHORE. THERE WAS ALSO A STRONGER BAND (AIDED BY A LAND
BREEZE) JUST NORTHEAST OF MUNISING EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT IT
HAS NOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE MESSY. WOULD THINK THAT THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE BAND COMING FROM THE KEWEENAW AND THE MORE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE MARQUETTE COUNTY SHORE SHOULD HELP
THAT BAND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
FARTHER WEST...THERE HAS BEEN A LULL OVER LUCE COUNTY FOR THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST STARTING TO DROP SOUTH
FROM THE NORTHEAST OF CARIBOU ISLAND.

NOW FOR THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND QUICKLY DRAG THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE
MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR A
PERIOD EARLY THIS MORNING AND ALSO INCREASE THE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS MORNING IN THAT AREA WITH SNOWFALL RATES
REACHING 1-2 INCH/HOUR AT TIMES. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS INDICATED ON THE
MODELS (15-17KFT) SEEM TO BE FAIRLY REASONABLE...WITH THE KMQT RADAR
ABLE TO PICK UP SOME RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND
14-15KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
UNDER THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE TO SEE SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2
INCHES PER HOUR FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING (MOST LIKELY OVER
NORTHEAST LUCE COUNTY). ONCE THAT TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS
THROUGH...EXPECT A TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...EXPECT THE NORMAL WIND PARALLEL BANDS AND A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE INTENSITY. THE STRONGEST BAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY BE AROUND MUNISING OR PICTURED
ROCKS AREA...AS THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW ATTEMPTS TO BACK SLIGHTLY AND
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 11 INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY/TONIGHT IN THE WARNED
AREA.

OVER THE WEST...SHOULD SEE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND PULLS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. IN ADDITION...THE
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EAST OVER
MINNESOTA TODAY AND BEGIN TO LOWER THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THUS...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS WILL FALL FROM AROUND 13KFT
EARLY THIS MORNING TO 9KFT BY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE...MUCH OF THE CLOUD WILL BE COMPRESSED WITHIN THE DGZ AND
LEAD TO HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ALSO DURING
THIS TIME...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL START TO BACK THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT (WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING
TO 5KFT). WILL FOCUS ON THOSE AREAS FOR THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT
AS THEY SLOWLY DECREASE WITH THE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE
IMPACT OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND GREATLY DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY (LAKE INDUCED EQL FALLING TO 6KFT BY THAT TIME WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS). SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 3-8 INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF WHITE PINE. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS IS.
THE KEWEENAW MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT AS THE GENERALLY
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BECOMES FOCUSED THERE. AS SAID ABOVE...COULD BE
SOME WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WHITE
PINE...BASED OFF RADAR YESTERDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT...NOT SURE IF THERE WOULD BE MUCH
ADVANTAGE TO IT WITH THE EXPECTED DIMINISHMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

AS A FINAL NOTE...LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE 6TH DAY IN A ROW OF
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT OUR OFFICE. THE RECORD FOR
TODAY IS 18 DEGREES (SET IN 1969 AND 1978)...WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST AT 14 DEGREES. THAT STREAK LOOKS TO END TOMORROW AS THE
RECORD IS 15 DEGREES AND THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR 19 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MIXED PCPN EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH A STRENGTHENING SW
FLOW DRAWING MUCH WARMER AIR...ALBEIT JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BACK INTO THE UPR LKS. FOCUS FOR LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WL TURN TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN EVENT
THAT WL ACCOMPANY A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LO PRES MOVING NNEWD INTO THE
UPR LKS ON MON AS A PAIR OF SHRTWVS PHASE AND DEEPEN THE UPR TROF
JUST TO THE W. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE PCPN ON SUN THRU
SUN NGT WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA. MUCH COLDER AIR AND LK ENHANCED/LES
CHANCES WL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI...AS THE TROF OVER ERN AMERICA SHIFTS TO THE E...UPR RDG IN THE
PLAINS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LKS...LEADING TO 12HR H5 HGT
RISES UP TO 180M. LINGERING LES OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND
NEAR LK SUP E OF GRAND MARAIS WL DIMINISH AND SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP
WITH WSHFT TO THE SW AS SFC HI PRES IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS E
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL
LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF HI CLDS. IN THE STRENGTHENING SW FLOW...H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE ABOUT 10C THRU THE DAY...REACHING NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE 0C OVER THE W BY 00Z SAT. FCST SDNGS SHOW VERY STABLE
LLVL LAPSE RATES...SO THE WARMING WL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED AT THE
SFC...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE 20S AT MOST SPOTS. EXPECT THE LOWEST MAX
TEMPS OVER THE CENTRAL...WHERE THE HI MAY HOLD IN THE UPPER TEENS. A
STEADY SSW WIND WL MAKE THE AIR FEEL COLDER.

FRI NGT/SAT...WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE STRENGTHENING
WSW FLOW BTWN HI PRES MOVING OFF THE E COAST AND LO PRES MOVING
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA...MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN
OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...MAINLY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AFTN OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WHERE LONGER DURATION OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT FAVORS MORE SGNFT MOISTENING SHOWN ON FCST SOUNDINGS. BUT
PERSISTENCE OF DRIER AIR IN THE H85-7 LYR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GFS/NAM
FCST SDNGS EVEN OVER THE E WARRANTS JUST CHC POPS THERE...WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH FCST SDNGS SHOW AN
ELEVATED WARM LYR/H85 TEMPS ABOVE 0C...DRY NATURE OF THIS LYR WITH
WBLB TEMPS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 0C WOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FOR SN TO BE THE PTYPE IF PCPN IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND
FM THE HIER MOIST LYR. BUT THE INCRSGLY MOIST BUT SHALLOW NEAR SFC
LYR WL BE WARMER THAN -10C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE/SN GRAINS AS THE PTYPES. SO WL RETAIN THE WINTRY MIX SHOWN
IN CURRENT FCST. MODELS ALSO SHOW A TRAILING SHRTWV WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS LATE ON SAT...BUT THE GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT SHOWS SGNFT MOISTENING AND GENERATES PCPN. GIVEN THE
DRYING NATURE OF THE MID LVLS FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE BETTER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WL FAVOR THE DRT BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. AS FOR
TEMPS...STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW/WARMING LLVL TEMPS/INCRSG CLDS WL
FAVOR A RELATIVELY MODEST DIURNAL TEMP FALL ON FRI NGT...WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT RELATIVELY EARLY AND THEN RISING THRU THE NGT. TEMPS
ON SAT SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE.

SAT NGT...HGT RISES/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING SHRTWV SHOULD BRING ABOUT A DRY PERIOD AT MOST PLACES. SOME
OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA. SINCE
FCST SDNGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINGERING...SHALLOW MOIST LYR NEAR THE
SFC BLO QUITE A BIT OF MID LVL DRY AIR...ANY PCPN WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE/SN GRAINS. WITH LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
THE MID LVL DRYING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO ARND 30
AT MOST PLACES AWAY FM THE GREAT LKS.

SUN THRU MON...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV LIFTING NNEWD FM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LKS BY LATE
SUN AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD THRU THE NRN
PLAINS...DVLPG A CUTOFF H5 LO NEAR UPR MI ON MON. THE SFC LO PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN PLAINS SHRTWV IS FCST TO DEEPEN STEADILY
DURING THIS PHASING PROCESS...WITH RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS SHOWING THE
CENTRAL PRES OF THIS LO FALLING AS LO AS 971-974MB ON MON. GIVEN THE
PHASING BTWN THE SHRTWVS/DEEPENING SFC LO...SUSPECT THE FARTHER W
TRACK FOR THE SFC LO AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z ECMWF MOVING TO NEAR
BARAGA AT 18Z MON MAY BE THE BEST FCST. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A FCST TRACK ONLY SLIGHTLY TO E...PASSING
BTWN MARQUETTE-MUNISING AS IT MOVES N INTO CENTRAL LK SUP.
IMPRESSIVE DYANMIC FORCING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO ARRIVE
FM THE S DURING THE DAY... RESULTING IN DEEP SATURATION AS EARLY AS
18Z OVER THE S AT MENOMINEE AND OVER THE REST OF THE CWA THRU THE
AFTN. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MRNG WITH SOME
RETURN OF LLVL MSTR BEFORE THE DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING ARRIVES
S-N IN THE AFTN...FCST SDNGS INDICATE THE LLVLS WL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE TIME THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF
RA. AS THE SFC LO TRACKS MORE SLOWLY TO THE NE...COLDER AIR WL
RETURN IN THE CYC NW FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE LO BEGINNING LATE
SUN NGT THRU MON. HOW QUICKLY THIS COLD AIR RETURNS WL DETERMINE
WHEN WRAP AROUND PCPN WL CHG BACK TO SN. SINCE A FARTHER W TRACK
SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET...TENDED TO PSUH BACK IN TIME THE CHANGE FM
RA TO SN. THE BEST CHC FOR SGNFT ACCUMULATING SN WL BE OVER THE WRN
CWA ON MON...WHICH WL HAVE A BETTER SHOT TO BE ON THE CYC SIDE OF
THE H7-5 LO TRACK/UNDER THE COMMA HEAD AND WHERE LLVL WINDS WL
UPSLOPE. DRY SLOTTING MAY IMPACT THE CWA FARTHER TO THE E AND HOLD
DOWN ADDITIONAL PCPN AMOUNTS ONCE THE AIR IS COLD ENUF FOR MAINLY SN
LATER MON/MON NGT.

TUE/WED...AS THE LO MARCHES TO THE NE AND H5 TROF AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
E ACRS THE UPR LKS...DEEP CYC NW FLOW/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR WL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED SN ON TUE WITH THE RETURN OF H85 TEMPS
AS LO AS -15C. SUSPECT WINTER WX HEADLINES WL BE NECESSARY AT SOME
POINT FOR AT LEAST THE WRN CWA DURING THE MON-TUE NGT TIME FRAME.
OPTED TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND ADD SOME ENHANCEMENT
IN THE EHWO GRIDS. WITH THE EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR/CYC FLOW ON WED
AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE PCPN ON
WED SHOULD RETURN TO A PURE LES MODE WITH THE -15C H85 TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND LEAD TO IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS AT KIWD/KCMX. MAY
SEE KIWD IMPROVE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING...AS
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE BANDS TO THE WEST OF THERE WEAKENING
SOME OVER THE LAST HOUR. OTHERWISE...AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND WINDS EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL END THE SNOW FIRST AT KIWD AND THEN AT KCMX
LATE TONIGHT.

AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DUE TO THE GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST WIND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER BARAGA AND
NORTHWEST MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SITE THIS
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO GO BELOW VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 609 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

NW GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH AS LO PRES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TRACKS FARTHER
EAST AND THE PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SLACKENS. GOING GALE
WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE BY AFTERNOON. AS A HI PRES CENTER DRIFTS E FROM
THE PLAINS AND THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE SW. THE STRONGEST SW WINDS WILL OCCUR ON FRI NIGHT.
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD IN THE AREA BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE
AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE THE SW FLOW
AND CAUSE HIER WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT THE SW WINDS TO DIMINISH THRU SAT.
WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO THE E AS A STRONG LO PRES SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE
IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUN TRACKS TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ONCE THIS LO SHIFTS TO THE NE IN CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
ON MON...NNW GALES MAY DEVELOP ON ITS WESTERN FLANK ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL LATER ON MON. THESE NW GALES MAY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE LAKE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ001>004-009-084.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
     085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ263-264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-245.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC





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