000
FXUS63 KMQT 220807
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

12Z ROABS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING UPR LO
OVER ERN SDAKOTA BTWN UPR RDG OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND A RIDGE OFF
THE SE CONUS. BAND OF SHRA/SCT TS THAT IMPACTED THE CWA EARLIER HAS
LIFTED TO THE N ALONG WITH RESPONSIBLE SHRTWV...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY
DRY WX OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN. BUT SINCE THE CWA IS N OF SFC
WARM FNT IN WI...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER. THERE IS ALSO SOME FOG...
MAINLY NEAR THE COOLER GREAT LKS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING N
THRU IOWA ARND THE CLOSED LO. THE APRCH OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS
RESULTED IN SOME SHRA OVER CENTRAL WI WHERE BREAKS IN THE LO CLDS
ALONG AND S OF WARM FNT HAVE LIFTED SB CAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SHRA/TS TRENDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV IN IOWA AND THEN APRCH OF MAIN UPR LO.

LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRA NOW OVER CENTRAL WI DRIFTING ACRS THE WI
BORDER BY 21Z AND THEN CONTINUING TO THE NE. RUC FCST SDNGS MODIFIED
FOR TEMP/DEWPT OF 68/58 YIELDS SBCAPE UP TO 750 J/KG...SO ADDED
MENTION OF TS. RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS SFC-H5 AS WELL AS DEEP
MSTR/SKINNY CAPE WITH PERSISTENT LO CLDS LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING
INDICATE A LO RISK FOR ANY SVR TS...BUT ANY SHRA COULD RESULT IN
SOME HEAVY RA WITH FCST KINX AS HI AS THE UPR 30S. ONCE THE SHRA
MOVE FARTHER TO THE NE AND AWAY FM THE SFC HEATING AREA...ONE MIGHT
EXPECT THESE SHRA TO DIMINISH THRU THE NGT. BUT FCST AREA OF H85-7
FGEN N OF WARM FNT MIGHT ACT TO SUSTAIN THESE SHRA. WL GO WITH HI
CHC-LIKELY POPS THIS EVNG NEAR THE WI BORDER DIMINISHING TO CHCY
POPS TO THE NE. SINCE THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK MORE TO THE NE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRA AREA...EXPECT COOLER LAKE
AIR/SOME FOG TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNGT.

WED...AS CLOSED LO TO THE W BEGINS TO SHIFT FASTER TO THE ESE TO SW
WI BY 00Z THU...AREA OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR CNVGC WL IMPACT MAINLY
THE AREA NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPR CLO
BEGINS TO OPEN. BAND OF RA ACCOMPANYING AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN OVER
WRN LK SUP/THE WRN ZNS SHOULD THUS SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE THRU THE
DAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FM THE NW TO THE SE OF EXPANDING HI PRES
OVER SCENTRAL CANADA MIGHT START TO DIMINISH THE PCPN OVER THE FAR W
LATER IN THE DAY. OTRW...LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR STEADY
NE WIND OFF LK SUP AND EXPECTED CLD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL BE IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z THU. PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MOVING TO THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z SAT AND THE RIDGE STAYING PUT
IN THE PLAINS. LOOKS DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME FROST FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT
AND PUT IT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO HELP WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST. THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON STARTS AFTER MEMORIAL DAY...BUT
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WITH THE RIDGE NEARBY AND VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
AND WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
WHICH WAS THE ADJMET AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR COLDER SPOTS.
HIGHS ON THU WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE MID 50S. FOR FRI...WENT
COLDER FOR HIGHS AS WELL WITH A COLDER START IN THE MORNING AND 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ONLY TO 4C. MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE SFC
WOULD GIVE ME HIGHS AROUND 60 AT BEST. THE TEMPERATURES WERE THE
MAIN THING THAT I ADJUSTED FOR THIS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER
FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC NW AND IN NEW ENGLAND 12Z SAT.
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE 12Z SUN THROUGH 12Z TUE. WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND QUIET WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH...BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH SEEING MUCH
RAIN OUT OF THIS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

COOL/MOIST AIR UPSLOPING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY END
UP VLIFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KSAW UNDER A MORE DIRECT LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT -SHRA/-DZ AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD/KCMX
DUE TO AN AREA OF MORE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FORCING. THESE MORE
PERSISTENT -SHRA SHOULD DRIFT SE AND AFFECT KSAW WED AFTN. THERE IS
LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL AS LOW LOW PRES THAT HAS PLAGUED THE
AREA IN RECENT DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL BE SHUNTED SE
BY HIGH PRES NOSING S TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM N TO S
WED AFTN/EVENING. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD BREAK OUT TO VFR IN THE
EVENING...PERHAPS SOONER...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL
NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD THAT KSAW IMPROVES TO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THE FOG
ON THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING WARM AIR
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN 20-25KT RANGE. THEN...A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>242-245>248-263-265.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243-244-
     264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07