Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 060929
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA AT IWD OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES CMX WITH MAINLY LEFTOVER LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT
BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IFR LATE AS THE RAIN INCREASES. AS RAIN DIMINISHES AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NNW FLOW...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATE EVENING. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON


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