000
FXUS63 KMQT 241720
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

ALTHOUGH WE DO HAVE MID CLOUDS AGAIN STREAMING S FROM CANADA...THE
RESULT THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT /NO SNOW EXPECTED/. A
3KFT DECK AS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO CROSS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...BUT
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MOVE MUCH EAST OF DRUMMOND ISLAND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT SHOULDN/T NEED TO INCLUDE ANYTHING ABOVE
10 PERCENT AROUND OR WEST OF LUCE COUNTY.

EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A BIT WARMER TODAY...BUT STILL AVERAGING 10F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PARTICULARLY NORTH CENTRAL AND
EAST WHERE COOLER AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PERSIST. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH ITS PRECIP FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THE 06Z HAS REVERSED THIS TREND WITH A CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED. DID KEEP A FEW CLOUDS IN OUR COOL NW FLOW OVER
THE WEST HALF. TEMPERATURES AGAIN COULD COOL DOWN AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI...WHERE PW
VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.33IN /OR 45-50 PERCENT OF NORMAL/.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR W SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE WARMER...WITH A MORE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE RULE THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS TROF
CURRENTLY EXTENDING S THRU THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY SHIFTS E WHILE
UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE WRN PLAINS TO THE
NW TERRITORIES SLOWLY MOVES E TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MANITOBA. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THRU MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH WILL
NEED TO EXAMINE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES W SAT AND THEN
POSSIBILITY OF -SHRA LATE MEMORIAL DAY...AGAIN OVER THE W. COOL WEATHER
(BELOW NORMAL TEMPS) TO START THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS
TROF SHIFTS E. TEMPS SHOULD BE UP NEAR MAY NORMALS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LAKE BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE IN
THE AFTN...SO AFTN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
HEADING THRU THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LAKES MAY
GET INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR TSTMS AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE
CONUS...PLACING UPPER LAKES IN THE PATH OF SHORTWAVES FORCED AROUND
THE RIDGE. OVERALL LOOK OF THE PATTERN SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE OUR
FIRST SEVERE STORMS OF THE YEAR AT SOME POINT MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.
WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE...IT WILL BECOME MORE SUMMERLIKE
HERE WITH TEMPS PROBABLY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH DWPTS ON THE
RISE AS WELL...LEADING TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING SAT...UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE ERN
TROF...PLACING RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/FAR WRN GREAT LAKES. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD FORCE SOME -SHRA. WITH MAIN AREA OF
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STREAKING SE TO THE W OF HERE...
PCPN SHOULD REMAIN W OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE IS A MUCH WEAKER
SECONDARY BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AT HIGHER LEVELS STREAKING
SE ACROSS UPPER MI...AND THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES
OVER THE W. GIVEN THE BETTER FORCING TO THE W AND LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW
THAT SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN DRIER LOW-LEVELS...PLAN TO KEEP FCST DRY
ON SAT. THE SECONDARY AREA OF FGEN WILL LIKELY AID RATHER EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING SE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASINGLY THINNER FARTHER E. IN FACT...SAT SHOULD END UP MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER THE E WITH ONLY SOME INLAND CU.

SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE W SAT NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR LATE
MAY. LIGHTEST WINDS AND LEAST CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL AND
E...AND WILL PAINT LOWEST MINS IN THAT AREA. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
FROST IN THE INTERIOR AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. AFTER A
CHILLY START...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUN UNDER A DRY COLUMN WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM A
WRN CONUS TROF WILL ERODE THE RIDGE. THE GFS/GEM SHOW STRONGER
SHORTWAVES TRACKING THRU THE RIDGE...BRINGING THREAT FOR SOME SHRA
MON OR MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...OPTED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY IN MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER FOR UPPER MI ON
MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS W...THE
E SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE. FOR MON HIGH
TEMPS...SHOULD BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM SUN HIGHS
AS 850MB TEMPS RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...RESULTING IN INTERIOR MAX
TEMPS AROUND 70F.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE CONUS NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL
WEAKEN. OBVIOUSLY...CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO SHORTWAVES WHICH ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN THE FCST. FOR NOW...LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FROM TUE THRU THU. CERTAINLY WON`T SEE LONG DURATION PCPN
EVENTS...BUT THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME
PCPN AT SOME POINT TUE/WED/THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR EACH TAF SITE. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE IWD AND CMX TAF SITES...HOWEVER...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY EDGE
EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF
THE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
SLIGHTLY TOWARD TUESDAY /MAINLY LESS THAN 25KTS/ AS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND
ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KF