Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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205
FXUS63 KMQT 201029
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
529 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the ern U.S. this
morning and a trough off the Pacific NW coast and another in the
Canadian Rockies. This trough in the Canadian Rockies digs quickly
southeast into the northern plains tonight and is poised to move
into the upper Great Lakes. Did not make too many changes to the
going forecast overall and looks pretty quiet as lake effect snow
ends over the east and starts up late tonight again as colder air
comes in late. Will have filtered sunshine through high clouds today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 437 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017

A SFC low NE of the CWA Tue morning will already have dragged a cold
front across the CWA by 12Z Tue, with a secondary trough/front and
shortwave moving through late morning and early afternoon Tue. A
second shortwave crosses the area late Tue into early Tue night.
850mb temps around -8C at 12Z Tue will drop to -15C by Tue afternoon
and stay that cold through Tue night. Winds will be gusty out of the
NW, with gusts to 40-45mph along the Lake Superior shore and up to
30mph elsewhere.

Moderate LES is expected to develop Tue morning in the NW winds
snowbelts and continue through Tue night before warming temps and
winds becoming W to SW will diminish LES on Wed. Heaviest snow
should be with the secondary front/trough/shortwave from late Tue
morning into Tue afternoon. Another uptick in LES can be expected
with the second shortwave. Dry air looks to limit total
accumulations some with forecast amounts generally of 2-5" in NW
snowbelts Tue into Wed. Could see some advisories issued, if
anything.

Looks like a decent shot of seeing over much of the area on Friday
as a low moves N of the area. On the back side of the system Sat
into Sun, which would lead to light to moderate LES in the NW wind
snowbelts.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 528 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail thru the fcst period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 248 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017

An area of low pressure will approach, then move through the area
tonight through Tuesday giving a period of southwest gales tonight
before shifting to northwest gales Tuesday into Tuesday night. The
next chance of seeing near-gale winds will be Friday into Saturday;
otherwise, winds are generally expected to be in the 15 to 25 knot
range.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ248>251-
     265>267.

  Gale Warning from 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ to 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/
     Tuesday for LSZ162-240>242-263.

  Gale Warning from 2 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ243>245-264.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



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