Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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272
FXUS63 KMQT 011729
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
129 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND COLUMN MOISTENING ON PERIPHERY OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING E THROUGH THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH MODERATE
700-600 MB FGEN IN RESPONSE TO COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE OVER AREA
HAS SUPPORTED SOME SCT -SHRA OVER NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THESE SHOWERS WILL STAY SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AS FORCING WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.

MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON PERIPHERY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
GRADUALLY THIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
UNDER A COOL NE ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F OVER
THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF....TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY...A DECAYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP
INLAND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTHS
AND HIGH BASES SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FORMATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SSE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING LEFT EXIT
OF AN UPPER JET WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN PLAYER FOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROPA...ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS DIURNAL ASSISTANCE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO NUMEROUS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ANY DECENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT A FEW RUMBLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY HAS ALSO HAD THE FOCUS OF FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. BY THEN...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE HAD A WEEK OF DRYING SINCE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY LAST WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS TEMPS
INTO THE 60S INLAND AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20MPH LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT INCREASED WILDFIRE
DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST WOULD BE AN EARLY ARRIVAL
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. THE SECOND IS AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING. THEN...WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW FOR MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH LATE WED NIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS AND N TO NW WINDS FAVOR A CHILLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
UPPER MI...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY FAILING TO REACH 40 EAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY WHILE THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MERGES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO FORM DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS...WITH POSSIBLY
SOME CLOUD COVER EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



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