Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 102049
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
449 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

A QUIET DAY ACROSS UPPER MI WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND SOME SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST HALF
ON FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE RUNNING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL BOTH SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL ND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
ALBERTA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CWA WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST WAVE
OVERNIGHT AS MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER ACROSS THE AREA.
NOTHING BESIDE SOME CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT
OUTRUNS BETTER DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT. THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE SFC HIGH
WILL LIMIT COOLING ACROSS THE WEST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS FOR THE EAST HALF...A PERIOD OF DECENT COOLING IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN AS A WEAK EXTENSION
OF THE HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN UPPER MI. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 40S FAR EAST TO AROUND 60 FAR WEST.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A PATCH OF
SHOWERY ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN UPPER MI AROUND 12Z FRIDAY ON
THE NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H8 TO H7 FGEN. HAVE
THUS INCREASED POPS A SMALL AMOUNT ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT...AS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE...THE SHOWERS SHOULD OUTRUN UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND TRACK
INTO DRIER LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK INVERSION AROUND 875HPA. THIS SHOULD
KEEP A DECENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FINALLY ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BY WAY OF THE
RIGHT EXIT OF A 90KT 250HPA JET STREAK. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKING INTO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO
WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE JET AND TROUGH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE AROUND 500J/KG ACROSS THE FAR
WEST WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS.

FINALLY...30 TO 40KT WINDS BETWEEN 900 AND 850HPA MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT SFC WIND FORECAST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL MIXING...BUT
GUSTS OVER 20KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR SSW DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MAINLY ZONAL
PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL LOW WEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
SIGNFICANT AMPLIFICATION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND THE
LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM MON INTO WED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN REBOUND
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THU AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS INTO QUEBEC.

FRI NIGHT...A WEAK SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND
305K-310K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS AN 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE SLIDES
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EAST AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES LATE. TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE.

SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND EAST AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SUGGEST THAT
THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI.

SUNDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM WITH THE
SHRTWV AND SFC COLD FRONT THAT USHERS IN THE INITIAL BATCH OF COLD
AIR AND SHRA CHANCES. SINCE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
BEFORE PEAK HEATING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY TSRA. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSRA WOULD BE OVER THE FAR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA.

MON-WED...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SINKS THROUGH THE REGION...SHRA
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON MON AND LINGER INTO TUE. HIGHS MON IN THE
60S WILL DROP INTO 50S AND LOWER 60S ON TUE AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO
NEAR 4C. ONSHORE WINDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO ADD TO THE CHILL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNAL CUMULUS AT 5 TO 6KFT WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR WEAK LLWS ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KTS OVER 1KFT TO DEVELOP
FOR IWD AND CMX BY LATE EVENING. SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND FAIRLY SCATTERED AT IWD LATE FRIDAY MORNING...AND CMX AT
THE END OF PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW IWD TO SEE HIGH-END MVFR CIGS WITH
THE SHRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING S TO SSW FLOW THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS AROUND 20KTS AT ALL SITES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SOUTH WINDS OF UP TO 20
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE LIGHT SW TO W WINDS
FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER





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