Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMQT 030813
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLOUDS THINNING OUT. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HRS
AFTER SUNRISE...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN AT ALL
TERMINALS. MAY HAVE A RETURN OF SOME FOG TONIGHT...PROBABLY JUST
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.