Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 190712
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
312 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CWA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NAM ADVERTISES A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW THAT DEVELOPS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOWLY THE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD.

NAM CONTINUES TO KEEP SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO THE SAME THING. BASICALLY...WILL BE DAMP AND CLOUDY WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND WHEN IT IS NOT RAINING...THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE
AROUND. WILL IGNORE THE DRIZZLE THOUGH IN THE WEATHER AS THE RAIN
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THEM TONIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE SERN CWA AT
12Z WED AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE /WHILE WEAKENING/ TO FAR SERN ONTARIO
BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN CWA. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE/PRECIP WILL DIMINISH/MOVE SE WED INTO EARLY WED NIGHT. THE
BREAK IN PRECIP UNDER THE RIDGE WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A PLUME OF
THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PLOTTING QPF DUE TO THE
THETA-E ADVECTION...AND THEY EVEN AGREE PRETTY WELL IN SHOWING A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING S OF THE CWA. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS AND ALSO SHOW POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH TRACK/TIMING
OF THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GFS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
SFC LOW FROM SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW MORE DEFINED AND OVER MN AND IS
6-12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THIS MAY BRING PRECIP TO THE CWA
SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUN AND MON...BRINGING DRIER
WEATHER. WILL USE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR FRI THROUGH MON.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE WED THROUGH AT LEAST
SAT...AND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW OUT OF THE PLAINS...SAT
OR SUN MAY BE A FAIR AMOUNT WARMER THAN IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN HINTING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THAT
850MB TEMPS MAY RISE TO AROUND 20C JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE 80S IN SOME SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE
FORECAST WARMER DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY WITH
THAT WARM OF A SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFICS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING HRS UNDER
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW/DEEP MOISTURE AND SCT TO AT TIMES NMRS SHRA OVER
UPPER MI ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY ESEWD FROM MN. AT
KIWD...IFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR AND POTENTIALLY VLIFR AS
LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS LATER IN THE NIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THIS AFTN AT ALL TERMINALS...THOUGH
LOW MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. ALL TERMINALS WILL FALL BACK
TO LIFR TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

KEPT IN FOG OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL LAKE GIVEN ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND EXPECTED AREA OF LOWER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LINGERING
COOLEST DEEPER WATER. OTHERWISE... EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ABOVE THE CHILLY WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07





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