Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 130731
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
331 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BENEATH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT IS CENTERED
OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA. THE SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A WEAK TROUGH INTO
THE ERN CWA BETWEEN A 1031MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
1027MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC...WITH RIDGING QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH.

SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI AS
THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE W. EXPECT STEADY CLEARING OF PRECIP
FROM W TO E THIS MORNING...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BY NOON TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 50S WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING OVER LAND THIS DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING NRN
MN BY 12Z SUN. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE CWA...850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND 0C
OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE SW FLOW OFF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND
TRAJECTORIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR KEEPING PRECIP JUST E OF THE CWA SO
DID NOT INCLUDE POPS. MAY AGAIN SEE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
OVER THE INTERIOR W AND ALSO THE INTERIOR E TONIGHT...WITH FROST
BEING POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

DURING THE LONG TERM...A RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER WRN NAMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULTING NW FLOW WILL SPELL A
GENERALLY QUIET/COOL PERIOD OF EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. TEMPS ON MOST IF NOT ALL DAYS WILL BE BLO NORMAL.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING...AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. AS
FOR PCPN...NOT MUCH IS IN THE OFFING. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE 2
COLD FROPAS NEXT WEEK...AND THESE WILL OFFER SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
PCPN. ANY PCPN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE
RETURN. DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARMING IS AT THE END OF THE
WEEK AND HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES E IN THE DEAMPLIFYING
FLOW...ANOTHER SHOT AT PCPN IS POSSIBLE FRI.

BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WAA GETS UNDERWAY...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WITH BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING W OF HERE THRU
THE NIGHT...DRY FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT...ESPECALLY IF DIURNALLY AIDED CLOUDS FROM THE AFTN DISSIPATE
QUICKLY. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W ALONG WITH
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT/WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF SHOULD WORK TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH OVER THE W.
OUTSIDE OF TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WHICH MIGHT SLIP TO OR JUST BLO
FREEZING...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SAT NIGHT.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPEPR GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE
AND UPWARD MOTION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG AND N OF THE
PROJECTED VORT TRACK. TIMING AMONG THE MODELS IS QUITE SIMILAR AND
SUGGESTS CHC POPS SPREADING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF UPPER MI...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTN HRS. SLIGHTLY FASTER MODEL TREND IS NOTED...
AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PCPN CHC ENDING W TO E SUN NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR MON. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN MON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THERMAL TROF
ALOFT. RETAINED A DRY FCST...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO TAKE A LOOK
AT AGAIN IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

HEADING INTO MIDWEEK...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS NOTABLE
DIFFERNCES WITH THE EXPECTED SECOND COLD FRONT PASSAGE. GFS/UKMET
ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY HEADING SSE TO
HUDSON BAY/NRN ONTARIO VCNTY MON/TUE. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPS THRU UPPER MI TUE AFTN/EVENING. THE ECMWF DOESN`T DRIVE
ENERGY AS FAR S AND WAITS FOR A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TO PUSH COLD
FRONT THRU UPPER MI WED. THE GEM WAS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...BUT THE
12Z RUN TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER...TO THE POINT THAT IS EVEN
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
ITS SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN SOME DIFFERENCES. TODAYS 12Z
RUN HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT. WITH BULK OF
GUIDANCE FAVORING THE FASTER FRONT AND WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND
NOTED IN THE 12Z ECWMF...FCST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS TODAY.
FORTUNATELY...PCPN POTENTIAL WITH FRONT IS QUITE LIMITED AND DOESN`T
WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS POINT...SO TIMING OF FRONT DOESN`T IMPACT
PCPN FCST. TEMPS WILL BE THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT AS MID DAY 850MB
TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA ON WED RANGE FROM -2C WITH THE GFS TO 6-8C
WITH THE ECMWF. TRENDED TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR WED...BUT DID NOT
GO NEARLY AS LOW AS THE GFS SUGGESTS AS IT IS PROBABLY OVER
AMPLIFIED AND TOO STRONG WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH S.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THU...AND THEN AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...PCPN MAY RETURN FRI DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING
WAA PATTERN AND HOW QUICKLY NEXT SHORTWAVE SHIFTS E IN DEAMPLIFYING
FLOW REGIME. UTILIZIED A SIMPLE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS CHC
POPS INTO ALL BUT THE ERN FCST AREA FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A BKN VFR CLOUD
DECK SHOULD REMAIN AT KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

WINDS MAINLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-010-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS





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