Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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579 FXUS61 KCAR 141049 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 649 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front lifts north across the area today. A weak cold front sags southward into the area tonight and stalls over the area through Thursday. High pressure builds in Friday. A front approaches on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 645 am update...Warm frontal precip is arriving on schedule. A brief period of rain will move through the Bangor area early this morning, but the bulk of the precipitation will be in the northern zones. Did increase PoPs late this afternoon and evening with convective activity towards Piscataquis and northern Somerset counties, but thunderstorms should stay west of the forecast area and have not added mention of thunder into the forecast. Previous discussion... The upper ridge and dry air over the area will slowly move east this morning. An area of precipitation currently in Ontario associated with a warm front will lift north into the area this morning. The precipitation will mainly affect the northern half of the forecast area with a one or two tenths of an inch of rainfall. Little to no rainfall is expected towards Bangor and Downeast with this warm front. Both QPF and PoPs have been lowered for most of the area with this forecast package. The warm front will bring significantly more humid air this afternoon. Dew points will be well into the 50s for western zones by later this afternoon. While cloud cover will limit highs to around 60F for much of the area, areas in southern Penobscot and Piscataquis counties may see afternoon reading in the mid to upper 60s. A weak cold front will sag southward towards these western zones late this afternoon and spark some shower activity. The best instability will be well southwest of the area and will not include mention of any thunder. The front stalls just west of the forecast area tonight with some residual shower activity. Patchy fog and low clouds can be expected to develop in the moist air mass ahead of the frontal boundary under a steepening low level inversion. Warm air will continue surging into the area ahead of the cold front. 925mb temperatures will rise towards 15C during the night towards the coast. Lows will be in the upper 40s to near 50F. The exception will be along the coast where the cool onshore flow will produce lows in the mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The aforementioned front will remain stalled over the area for Wednesday and Thursday and will weaken. At the same time, subtle shortwaves will pass through. This will keep the threat of showers both days, especially in the afternoons. Some guidance is indicating some instability over central areas and perhaps in the Bangor area on Wednesday. Thus, a thunderstorm or two is not totally out of the question. However, there is still uncertainty as to the placement of the boundary and how much destabilization will take place. Opted not to put thunder in the grids at this time due to low confidence. Shower chances decrease Thursday night as a low pressure system passes far to the south of the area. High temperatures both days will be well into the 60s away from the coast, with 50s at the coast. Lows both nights will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Patchy fog will be possible both nights due to light winds and abundant low-level moisture. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will exert influence over the area on Friday. This will result in at least partial sunshine for much of the day. The air mass in place supports highs exceeding 70 degrees away from the water outside the higher terrain. However, subtle shortwaves passing through the flow could trigger some afternoon showers. The 00z GFS shows enough instability for some thunder as well, but other guidance is not as aggressive. The shower threat decreases again Friday night into early Saturday. A frontal system then approaches the area late Saturday into Sunday with the threat of more showers. The system is expected to be slow to move, so unsettled weather is likely to continue into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will give way to MVFR cigs in rain today for sites north of HUL and GNR. FVE may have a few hours of IFR cigs with this rain today. Further south, BGR and BHB will likely remain VFR today with a slight chance of a brief IFR cig this morning. These sites will stand a better chance of IFR cigs tonight while northern terminals will be generally VFR. South winds at 10 to 15 kt are expected today, decreasing to 5 to 10 kt tonight. SHORT TERM: Wednesday...IFR or lower possible at Coastal terminals early AM with BCFG. Otherwise mainly VFR/MVFR with -SHRA. Winds light and variable. Wednesday Night...Mainly IFR with patchy fog and -SHRA. Winds light and variable. Thursday-Thursday Night...Mainly VFR/MVFR with scattered -SHRA on Thursday. MVFR/IFR with -SHRA and patchy fog Thursday night. Winds E 5-10 kts on Thursday, becoming light and variable Thursday night. Friday...Mainly VFR. Some MVFR possible at Aroostook terminals in the PM with -SHRA. Winds SE 5-15 kts. Friday Night-Saturday...Mainly MVFR/IFR with scattered -SHRA and patchy fog Friday night. MVFR with scattered -SHRA on Saturday. Winds SE 5-15kts with gusts 20-25 kts on Saturday.. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: South winds continue through the period. Some gusts over 15 kt are possible today, but will tend to decrease tonight. Had to reduce model winds due to stability. Seas will slowly build towards 3 feet today into this evening. Warmer and more humid air moving over the cold waters will result in some fog formation today and tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria Wednesday and Wednesday night. Southerly swells could increase wave heights to SCA levels on the outer waters Thursday night into Friday morning. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions into the weekend. Visibilities will be reduced in fog at times through the end of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Clark Long Term...Clark Aviation...MCW/Clark Marine...MCW/Clark