National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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AXUS75 KTFX 241950
DGTTFX

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
142 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...RECENT STORMS BRINGING SOME RELIEF TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA...

SYNOPSIS...
STORMS THAT HAVE HIT PORTIONS OF MONTANA WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAVE BROUGHT SOME RELIEF TO
DROUGHT CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES SHOW AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA HAVE
RECEIVED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE STORMS...200 TO
300 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH TO DATE. THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION VALUES...BETTER THAN 3 INCHES...EXTEND FROM
NORTHWEST MONTANA, DOWN ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL,
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SCATTERED AREAS IN SOUTHWEST
MONTANA HAVE ALSO RECEIVED BETTER THAN 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
DURING MAY.

AS OF MAY 21, THE PORTION OF MONTANA IN SOME STAGE OF DROUGHT ON THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR WAS OVER 33 PERCENT /33.52/, UP SLIGHTLY
FROM MAY 14. THE PORTION OF MONTANA IN THE D3 EXTREME DROUGHT
CATEGORY DECREASED AND IS NOW UNDER 3 PERCENT /2.81/. NEARLY 12
PERCENT /11.70/ IS IN THE D2 SEVERE DROUGHT CATEGORY. THAT PORTION
OF THE STATE IN THE D1 MODERATE DROUGHT CATEGORY IS JUST OVER 19
PERCENT /19.01/. JUST UNDER 14 PERCENT /13.69/ OF MONTANA IS IN THE
D0 ABNORMALLY DRY CATEGORY. OVER HALF OF THE STATE /52.79 PERCENT/
IS DROUGHT-FREE.

THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK RELEASED MAY 16 SHOWS DROUGHT PERSISTENCE
THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. THE OUTLOOK ALSO INDICATES DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THIS AREA. THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
IS EXPECTED TO SEE AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
AUGUST. THIS ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON CURRENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS, GOOD RESERVOIR STORAGE AND A
CLIMATE OUTLOOK THAT IS INDICATING BETTER CHANCES FOR DRIER THAN
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE JUNE THROUGH AUGUST PERIOD.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS...
THE MONTANA GOVERNOR`S DROUGHT AND WATER SUPPLY ADVISORY COMMITTEE
HAD ITS MAY MEETING THURSDAY, MAY 23. COPIES OF THE PRESENTATIONS
PROVIDED AT THE MEETING CAN BE REVIEWED THROUGH THE COMMITTEE`S
WEBSITE BELOW. THE COMMITTEE WILL CONTINUE TO MEET MONTHLY THROUGH
THE SUMMER AND EARLY AUTUMN MONTHS. THE NEXT MEETING WILL BE HELD
JUNE 13.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS BROUGHT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SHALLOWER SOIL
LEVELS. DEEPER LEVELS WILL REQUIRED CONTINUED PRECIPITATION TO SHOW
IMPROVEMENT.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
AS OF MAY 20, TOPSOIL MOISTURE RANKED AS SHORT TO VERY SHORT WAS 45
PERCENT /39 PERCENT LAST YEAR/. SUBSOIL MOISTURE SHORT TO VERY SHORT
WAS 54 PERCENT /35 PERCENT LAST YEAR/. PRODUCERS HAVE MADE UP FOR
LOST TIME IN PLANTING MANY OF THIS SPRING`S CROPS AND EMERGENCE
CONTINUES. WINTER WHEAT HAS ENTERED BOOT STAGE SLIGHTLY BEHIND LAST
YEAR AND THE 5 YEAR AVERAGE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
APRIL ACROSS MONTANA WAS GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 2013 WERE THE 11TH
COLDEST OF 119 YEARS OF RECORD. PRECIPITATION FOR THE STATE RANKED
AS THE 67TH DRIEST OF 119 YEARS. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MAY 2013, A
COMPOSITE OF 22 STATIONS ACROSS MONTANA AVERAGED ONLY 0.12 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION - THE AVERAGE IS 0.98 INCHES. THIS IS THE DRIEST FIRST
HALF OF MAY ON RECORD FOR MONTANA.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE JUNE OUTLOOK FOR MONTANA RELEASED MAY 16 INDICATES A 33 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS WEST,
SOUTHWEST, AND  SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE, THERE ARE
EQUAL CHANCES TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE, BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL. FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR JUNE, THERE IS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN A BAND FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

FOR OUR REMAINING SUMMER MONTHS OF JULY THROUGH SEPTEMBER, THE
OUTLOOK INDICATES BETTER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STATEWIDE - 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WITH 33 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
FOR JULY THROUGH SEPTEMBER SHOWS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE SHOWS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

IN AN UPDATE RELEASED MAY 9, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER WITH THE INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR
CLIMATE AND SOCIETY STATED THAT EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION /ENSO/
NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED INTO LATE SUMMER 2013.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
WITH RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES CAUSING MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT, STREAMFLOWS
FOR MOST SITES ARE IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PERCENTILES.

THE SWSI /SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX/ ISSUED BY THE NATURAL
RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE INDICATES STREAMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF MONTANA ARE MOSTLY NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY WET. STREAMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA ARE MOSTLY SLIGHTLY
DRY TO MODERATELY DRY.

RESERVOIRS ACROSS MONTANA ARE MOSTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
HISTORICAL AVERAGES FOR THE DATE. RECENT SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND THE
BEGINNING OF IRRIGATION DEMANDS ARE INCREASING RESERVOIR RELEASES.

CONTINUED DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA IN APRIL RESULTED IN THE SNOWPACK IN SEVERAL
BASINS CONTINUING TO DROP BELOW THEIR MEDIAN FOR THE DATE. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN EARLY MAY CAUSE RAPID SNOWMELT IN SOME
BASINS. AS OF MID-MAY, ONLY BASINS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
MAINTAINED NEAR AVERAGE SNOWPACK FOR THE DATE. ALL OTHER BASINS WERE
BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THROUGH THE SPRING, UPDATES TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE MADE ON A
MONTHLY BASIS, TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE 15TH AND 25TH. THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR MONTANA SHOULD BE
NO LATER THAN FRIDAY JUNE 21 2013.

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/
NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER...WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM /NIDIS/DROUGHT
PORTAL... DROUGHT.GOV
MONTANA DROUGHT AND WATER INFORMATION...DROUGHT.MT.GOV
NWS GREAT FALLS DROUGHT INFORMATION...
HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TFX/MAIN/DROUGHT.PHP?WFO=TFX
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...WRCC.DRI.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
NWS RIVER INFORMATION...WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS WATER RESOURCES OF MONTANA...MT.WATER.USGS.GOV/
US BUREAU OF RECLAMATION GREAT PLAINS REGION...WWW.USBR.GOV/GP/
US BUREAU OF RECLAMATION PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION...WWW.USBR.GOV/PN/
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS OMAHA DISTRICT...
WWW.NWO.USACE.ARMY.MIL/HTML/OP-R/REGWEBPG.HTM NATURAL RESOURCES
CONSERVATION SERVICE WATER SUPPLY...
WWW.MT.NRCS.USDA.GOV/SNOW/WATERSUPPLY/INDEX.HTML NATIONAL
INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER PREDICTIVE SERVICES...
WWW.PREDICTIVESERVICES.NIFC.GOV/PREDICTIVE.HTM

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE US
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTERS,
CLIMATOLOGISTS, AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES, MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES, STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES, USDA, NRCS, USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT, PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
5324 TRI-HILL FRONTAGE ROAD
GREAT FALLS MT 59404
PHONE: 406-453-2081
W-TFX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
