091
FNUS71 KBTV 091259
FWSBTV

Spot Forecast for Ranger School RX...NYS DEC
National Weather Service Burlington VT
859 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0830 EDT on May 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (802) 658-0207, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast for today has trended drier although some light drizzle
cannot be ruled out before 10 AM. Increasing sunshine is expected to
allow for mixing as deep as 5000 ft this afternoon which should help
temperatures warm to near 60 degrees with dewpoints dropping to near
40 degrees. If cloud cover is greater than forecast, we will see lower
temps and higher dewpoints. Winds today will be from the west to
northwest which will be upslope for the burn site. We will see winds
increase up to 7 to 12 mph this afternoon with a few gusts up to 18
mph especially above 1500 feet. Very good RH recovery is expected tonight
with northerly winds less than 10 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    drizzle early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........59     57     59     61     70
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....DRZL   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............48     52     56     58     60
RH..............83     71     57     49     44
20 ft wind......NW 1   N 5    N 6    N 6    N 6
20 ft wind gust.9      8      8      8      9
Mix hgt (ft)....2100   3300   4600   5000   4900
Transport wind..N 10   N 12   N 12   N 10   N 10
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 10 mph shifting to the east 8 to
                    10 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........74     80     82     85     85     83
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............57     53     49     47     44     43
RH..............49     64     74     83     89     93
20 ft wind......N 6    NE 6   NE 6   E 6    E 6    E 6
20 ft wind gust.9      9      8      9      9      10
Mix hgt (ft)....4500   1000   700    600    600    600
Transport wind..N 9    NE 10  E 10   E 10   E 9    E 8
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........82     63     57     78     80     80
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     30     30     30     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............42     47     53     56     55     55
RH..............96     86     66     59     61     59
20 ft wind......E 6    E 6    E 5    E 5    E 5    NE 5
20 ft wind gust.12     12     12     12     12     10
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1700   3500   4600   4100   4200
Transport wind..E 8    E 12   E 8    E 7    E 7    E 7
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...Clay
Requested by...Aimee Bills
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413525.0/BTV
.DELDT 05/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Aimee.bills@dec.ny.gov