318
AXPZ20 KNHC 071544
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N77W to 10.5N83W to 06.5N95W
11.5N106W to low pres 1009 mb near 09.5N110.5W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N113W to 04N127W to 05N132W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted N of 02N and E of 85W,
extending into the SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 86W and 107W,
and from 07N to 09N W of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered NE of Hawaii extends a broad ridge
southeastward over the offshore waters of Mexico to near the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure and lower pressure across interior Mexico is supporting
moderate NW winds offshore the peninsula, with locally fresh
winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Seas across this
area are in the range of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell, highest N of
Punta Eugenia. Inside the Gulf of California, winds are light and
variable with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere across the S and SW
Mexican offshore waters, winds are light to gentle, except along
the coastal waters of Guerrero and Oaxaca where moderate W to NW
winds are noted within 90 nm of the coasts. Seas in with these
winds in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters remain 5 to 6 ft in
mixed S and SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the local area will
shift NE throughout the week, and act to weaken the pressure
gradient across the Baja California offshore waters. This will
lead to the continuation of moderate NW winds across the Baja
Peninsula waters through Thu, with small areas of locally fresh
winds developing near the coasts each afternoon and evening. As
the high pressure shifts northeastward, NW winds will increase
across the near and offshore waters of California, with fresh NW
winds extending southward to the Baja Norte waters NW of
Guadalupe Island. Associated NW swell will continue to move into
the area offshore waters through the week, with seas in excess of
8 ft persisting across the waters north through west of Punta
Eugenia through Thu afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore
waters through Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are shifting westward off the
coast of Colombia into the Gulf of Panama, and Colombian waters
to 02n, and are likely supporting strong gusty winds, and
moderate to rough seas. Over the remainder Central America
offshore waters, winds remain light and variable and seas
moderate to 6 ft in S swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, winds are mainly moderate from the S to SW
with 5 to 6 ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are
expected S of 07N this morning through Thu, which are likely to
feed into increasing showers and thunderstorms shifting slowly
westward across the area today through Thu. Light to gentle
variable winds will be prevalent elsewhere along with moderate
seas in S swell. Otherwise, southerly swell will maintain seas
of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through early Fri,
increasing to 6 to 8 ft in S swell Fri afternoon through Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1029 mb high pressure is centered NE of Hawaii near 40N137W and
extends a ridge south and southeastward across the subtropical
waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate N-NE winds
are noted N of 20N between 115W and 125W, then become NE to E-NE
to the west of 125W. Seas across this area N of 20N are 6-8 ft
in NW swell. S of 20N, between the ridge and the ITCZ and W of
120W, moderate to fresh NE winds and 7-8 ft seas in NE swell
prevail. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to E winds are
noted with 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed SE and SW swell. Elsewhere,
light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western
part of the tropical waters will prevail through this afternoon
then gradually diminish to moderate speeds through Fri as high
pressure N of the area shifts northeastward. Seas within these
winds will be 6 to 8 ft, and subside tonight into Wed. NW swell
across the Baja California Norte waters will build through mid
week to produce seas of 8 ft and greater, mainly N of 25W and E
of 130W Wed through Thu night. The seas there will subside below
8 ft late Thu night.

$$
Stripling