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000
FXUS61 KBGM 210726
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
326 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED,. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
320 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT LOCATED ACRS NRN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WK WV IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SPARKING OFF CONVECTION, MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HOWEVER A
FEW PIN-PRICK STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

WMFNT WL LV CWA IN WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME THIS AFTN WITH DWPTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH VLY
LOCALES INTO THE MID-80S. THIS WL LEAD TO INSTABILITY INCREASING
THRU THE DAY, THO HOW MUCH RMNS TO BE SEEN. 00Z NAM INDICATES CAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WHILE 00Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS WL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE TSTMS, HWVR
TRIGGER WL BE LACKING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN WV ROUNDS THE UPR LVL
TROF.

LATEST MODELS SHOWING WMFNT SINKING BACK THRU THE AREA WHICH WUD
LKLY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR AFTN CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT MAY LAY OUT BNDRYS DRG THE DAY TDA.
HV KEPT CHC POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AND AFTER 21Z AS WV GETS CLOSER, HV INCREASED POPS TO LKLY
ACRS NRN ZONES.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG TO AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN WITH
ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE TO FORM. EXPECTING MOSTLY PULSE TSTMS TDA WITH
MEAGER WIND FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
WV WL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH S/WV TOPPING THE
RIDGE. HV CONTD LKLY POPS ACRS NRN ZONES THRU 06Z TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE AFT THIS TIME. CAPES RMN ELEVATED LEADING TO
THUNDER CONTG.

SHOWER AND TSTM CHCS WL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA LATE THUR NGT. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY DRG THE AFTN HRS AND HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY DURING EACH
DAY. POTENTIAL CONTS TO EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY.

FROPA OCCURS BY MIDNIGHT THUR NGT. LKLY POPS ARE EXPECTED JUST ALONG
AND AHD OF THE FRONT THEN TAPER OFF TO CHC AFT 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY VFR OVERALL. INITIAL LINE OF STORMS CARRYING THROUGH KSYR
JUST BEFORE TAF TIME WITH GUSTY WNW WIND SHIFT FROM EARLIER STORMS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND...EN ROUTE FOR KRME. IN WAKE OF THOSE
STORMS...FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS. WEAK WAVE WILL
CARRY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE SPROUTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT UNCERTAIN BUT PROB30 GROUPS ASSIGNED TO THE BEST
POTENTIAL TIMES FOR EACH TAF SITE ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER WAVE 02Z-06Z WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...

LATE WED NIGHT/THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI/SAT...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP