000
FXUS61 KBGM 241827
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
227 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
     RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. A
STEADY WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SUMMER HOLIDAY IS STARTING AS ANYTHING
BUT WITH A RPT OF SLEET IN STEUBEN COUNTY AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPR 30S DURING THE LATE MRNG DESPITE THE CALENDAR DATE. WHILE
I XPCT THE TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES...HAVE ADJUSTED
THE AFTN FCST MAX WELL DOWNWARD. ADJUSTED THE POP TO BETTER
REPRESENT THE AREA OF SHWRS...BUT STILL CONT CHANCE THRU THE AFTN
WITH THE CAA AND INSTABILITY. PRVS DISC BLO.

4 AM UPDATE... SFC COLD FRNT WAS SLICING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MRNG...HAVING REACHED OUR SERN ZNS AS OF THIS WRITING. THE
FRNT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE ENTIRE FA BY 10-11Z. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE UPR 30S-MID 40S OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
ATTM...OWING TO STG LOW-LVL CAA POST-FROPA. AS FAR AS PCPN IS
CONCERNED...STEADIER SHRA HAVE NOW PUSHED WELL TO OUR E...AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SWEPT TWDS NEW ENG/NJ/NYC. HOWEVER...SCTD
-SHRA ARE STILL PREVALENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO WRN NY/SRN
ONT...WITH A SIG UPR-LVL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE OH VLY ATTM.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...-SHRA WILL LIKELY GROW IN
COVERAGE...SPCLY BY THIS AFTN...AS STG DPVA WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TDY...ALG WITH COOLING MID-LVL TEMPS. WE HAVE LOW CHC POPS/SCTD
VERBIAGE THIS AM...GOING TO LIKELY/CAT POPS BY EARLY AFTN FOR MOST
PLACES...PARTICULARLY OUR ERN ZNS.

TEMPS TDY WILL BE SOME 25-35 DEGS COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
ONLY HOVER IN THE 50S MOST OTHER PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE... TEMPS WILL BE COLD TNT...WITH 30S TO LWR 40S
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD BE AN EASY SITN FOR A
FROST ADVSY ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...ONLY OUR WRN ZNS ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY CLEARING LATE TNT. ALSO...WINDS SHOULD STAY UP OVER THE
ENTIRE RGN...AS THE PRES GRADIENT STAYS TIGHT. THESE TWO FACTORS
SHOULD COMBINE TO MAKE FROST FORMATION UNLIKELY. IN FACT...OUR ERN
ZNS MAY WELL SEE CONTINUED SHWR ACTIVITY...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVE HRS.

SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME SCTD -SHRA MAY HANG ON OVER ERN SXNS...THEY
SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD...WITH THE AMPLIFIED ERN U.S. UPR TROUGH
STARTING TO PUSH SLOWLY EWD. ALSO...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE MOST AREAS...PARTICULARLY OUT ACRS THE FINGER LKS RGN.
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND...REACHING THE MID 50S-LWR 60S IN
THE AFTN.

SAT NGT LOOKS COLD AGN...BUT ALSO STILL FAIRLY BREEZY...WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOW TO BUILD IN. LTR SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ASCERTAIN
IF THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF ENUF TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY.

SUN AND SUN NGT...THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH MORE
SUNSHINE ON SUN...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S SUN AFTN...BUT ARE LIKELY TO DROP SHARPLY
AFTER SUNSET. BY SUN NGT/EARLY MON...BETTER RADIATING CONDS ARE
FORESEEN...SO FROST COULD DVLP IN OUR TYPICALLY COLDER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS HOWEVER...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING STALLED SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH DEVELOPING
SHWRS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE
ADVERTISING DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK. INITIAL LOOK AT
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE CONVECTION SETUP WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TOO EARLY FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIMING NEARS. WITH FCST 850-HPA TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM WELL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS...FCST HIGHS BY THU AND FRI WILL LIKELY WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
THROUGH THE AREA. IN GENERAL...LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OCCURS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS OF ELM AND ITH AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE SOME CLEARING
AT ELM NEAR 06Z. FOR ANY CLEARING THAT DOES WORK INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...FCST MODELS SHOW INCREASING CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. DEVELOPING CIGS SAT MORNING SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT
BEFORE STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. FOR BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG