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000
FXUS62 KMLB 152005
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
405 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE...LEAVING BEHIND A
RATHER SULTRY AIRMASS WITH LITTLE MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT. RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPR LVLS ARE CONVERGENT WHILE THE MID LVL
VORTICITY IS ALMOST NONEXISTENT. SHRAS/TSRAS THAT HAVE FORMED ALNG
THE AXIS OF THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET IF NOT SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. REMNANT CLOUD COVER AND HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP MIN
TEMPS IN THE M70S INTERIOR...M/U70S ALONG THE COAST. WILL DO A
PRE-FIRST PD WITH THE EVENING FCST PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR EXISTING
CONVECTION.

SUN-MON...
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND MERGE WITH THE
ATLC RIDGE. AXIS ORIENTED EAST TO WEST OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUN
WILL PUSH S INTO CENTRAL FL ON MON AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL CANADA RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WRLY STEERING FLOW
WILL WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10KTS...RESULTING SLOW MOVING SEABREEZES
AND CONVECTION. POPS AOB AVG AS H85-H70 LAPSE RATES BLO 5C/KM...WEAK
MID LVL VORTICITY...AND RELATIVELY A DRY H85-H50 LYR IMPEDES
CONVECTION. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSH FARTHER INLAND ON
SUN...FOCUSING PRECIP OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. LIGHTER FLOW WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE INLAND PROGRESSION
OF THE SEA BREEZE...EAST AND WEST COAST MERGER EXPECTED CLOSER TO
THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA.

NO UNUSUAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THIS AIRMASS...MAX/MIN TEMPS WITHIN
A FEW DEG OF CLIMO AVG. MAXES U80S/L90S COASTAL COUNTIES...L/M90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS L/M70S AREAWIDE.

EXTENDED...(PREV DISC)
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
EAST-WEST ORIENTED 500MB RIDGE OVER FLORIDA SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THURS AND FRI ON
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A STRONGER TROUGH THAT MAY BE ABLE TO
DISPLACE THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO REACH INTO FLORIDA.

FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON ALONG BOTH SEA
BREEZES. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION AND BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND UPON WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP...BOTH
MODELS POINT TO IT BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
(FAVORING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR RAIN)...AND ACROSS
OR TO THE NORTH ON THURS AND FRI.

TUES/WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH SLOWER EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID 70S WITH LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 16/00...WEAK FRNTL BNDRY EXTENDING FM KMLB-KISM-KZPH WILL WASH
OUT OVER CENTRAL FL...SFC WNDS E/SE 10-15KTS...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD
IFR TSRAS W OF KLEE-KMCO-KOBE. AFT 16/00Z...VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HI PRES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BUILD OFF THE SE COAST
AND BRIDGE A WEAK FRONTAL TROF OVER THE SW ATLC. GENTLE TO MODERATE
ERLY BREEZE AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE E/SE.
MINOR SWELL COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE WINDS
ALONE WOULD SUPPORT...4-5FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...3-4FT S OF THE
INLET.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...CONTINENTAL RIDGE WILL MERGE WITH THE ATLC RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS PUSHING N INTO CENTRAL FL. GENTLE TO
MODERATE E/SE BREEZE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LCL ATLC. PERSISTENT
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 4-5FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...3-4FT S OF THE
INLET. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE ISOLD.

MON-MON NIGHT...SFC/BNDRY LYR WNDS WILL VEER TO S-SE AS A NRN STREAM
STORM SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND SUPPRESSES
ITS AXIS BACK TO THE SOUTH. PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS WELL...
ALLOWING WINDS TO FRESHEN TO ARND 15KTS N OF SEBASTIAN INLET
OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3-5FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...2-4FT S OF THE INLET.

TUE-WED...LIGHT TO GENTLE S-SW BREEZE AS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAIN
DRAPED OVER THE S HALF OF THE PENINSULA THRU MID WEEK. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE E/SE NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY AFTN AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DVLPS AND PUSHES INLAND. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT
OFFSHORE. INCREASING SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE INTO MID WEEK WITH STORMS
MOVING OFFSHORE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  85  74  88 /  10  30  30  40
MCO  74  91  74  93 /  10  40  20  30
MLB  77  87  75  89 /  10  20  20  40
VRB  77  86  75  88 /  10  20  20  40
LEE  73  91  74  92 /  10  40  20  30
SFB  74  91  74  93 /  10  40  20  30
ORL  74  90  75  93 /  10  40  20  30
FPR  76  86  74  89 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST....BRAGAW
IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN