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000
FXUS62 KMLB 230747
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...THE TRANSITION TO A DRIER PATTERN BEGINS TODAY...

CURRENT...LOCAL SFC PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERNS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF COLLAPSING BASED ON SFC METARS AND CCAFS 915MHZ PROFILER
DATA. BOTH SHOW PRONOUNCED VEERING/WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
CALM AT THE SFC...VERY LIGHT (<10KT) S-SW JUST OFF THE DECK.

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ECFL THIS MORNING AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOW SOME PATCHY SHALLOW MIST TO DEVELOP NOT TOO
FAR WEST OF LAKE/OSCEOLA COUNTIES. THE ONSET OF GOES-14 DATA AROUND
0800 UTC/400 AM WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER INTERROGATION OF 3.9UM AND FOG
CHANNEL IMAGERY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...DEEPEST MOISTURE PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH
PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7" PRIOR TO SUNRISE  DROPPING OFF BY A FEW
TENTHS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS...COUPLED WITH A RATHER FLAT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOULD MAKE FOR MUCH LESS OVERALL COVERAGE
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO W-NW COUPLED WITH
INCREASING NWRLY STEERING FLOW OF 15-20KT BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD
FAVOR THE EAST COAST FOR PRECIP CHANCES TODAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE
20 INLAND/30 COAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10 PCT ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE.
EXPECT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO BE A LITTLE LATER IN FORMING AND
SLOWER TO PUSH TOWARD THE INTERIOR...THEREFORE EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
THE U80S ALONG THE COAST...AND 90-91 WEST OF I-95. A BRIEF LINGERING
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...BUT SHOULD END OR DRIFT
OFFSHORE BY 10-11 PM IF NOT BEFORE. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S.

FRIDAY...MUCH DRIER END TO THE WORK WEEK AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW THAT HAS BEEN TRANSITING THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEK
SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ACCOMPANYING IT WILL BRING A LATE SEASON
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING...USHERING
IN A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE PRETTY
QUICK TO SCOUR OUT EVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH
PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE TREASURE COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD OFF ANY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TO LATE DAY
(IF AT ALL) AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

SAT-TUE...IT WILL BE A WARM AND DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND ACROSS THE
AREA AS NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH USHERS IN DRY
AIR THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...STOUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WITH ITS AXIS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO NEXT WEEK.
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND DEEP ENOUGH THAT A FEW ATLANTIC
SHOWERS REACHING THE COAST CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER. HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY THIS FAR OUT REMAINS TO LOW TO MENTION.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID-UPPER 80S INLAND. POST FRONTAL
DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SAT-SUN NIGHTS BEFORE
THE GRADUALLY MOISTENING IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS LOWS UP IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COASTAL TEMPS REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY IN THE LOW-MID
70S. LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS DROP OVERNIGHT OR WEAK DRAINAGE FLOW
DEVELOPS MAY DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. POPS DON`T LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT VC TERM
FOR THE INTERIOR AERODROMES. WENT WITH LATE (20-21Z) AFTERNOON FOR
ONSET OF VCTS/PROB30 TS GROUPS FOR THE DAB-MLB-SUA CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
SRLY WINDS AROUND 10KT WEAKEN AS THEY VEER TO SW TODAY/TONIGHT.
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL SNAP WINDS TO E-SE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. 2-4FT SEAS WILL DROP BACK TO MAINLY 2-3FT TONIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE NORTHEAST WINDS SURGE SAT MORNING...THOUGH STILL
EXPECT SPEEDS AROUND 15-20KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY AS THEY VEER TO THE EAST AROUND
15KTS. LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL INTO MONDAY AT
10-15KTS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE AXIS.

WIND SURGE WILL BRING SEAS TO AROUND 6FT OFFSHORE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING HEIGHTS 4-5FT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  69  90  68 /  30  20  10  10
MCO  91  69  92  68 /  20  10  10   0
MLB  88  71  89  72 /  30  20  20  10
VRB  89  70  89  71 /  30  20  20  10
LEE  90  69  91  68 /  20  10  10   0
SFB  92  70  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
ORL  90  72  92  71 /  20  10  10   0
FPR  89  69  90  71 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....MOSES