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000
FXUS62 KMLB 180752
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF LAST EVENING`S
CONVECTION ARE WORKING THEIR WAY OFF THE BREVARD COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. UNLIKE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OR SURFACE INSTABILITY FOR ACTIVITY TO WORK WITH. THE
REMAINING DEBRIS RAIN ACROSS BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES WILL FALL APART OR PUSH OFFSHORE WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.
GIVEN THE HIGH HUMIDITIES AND RECENT RAINFALL...THERE COULD BE SOME
HAZE/MIST AROUND SUNRISE.

REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...ONLY VERY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FL PENINSULA KEEPING THE STATE IN A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.

MODELS POPS CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER CLIMO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE GFS BARELY MENTIONING RAIN AT 10-15 PERCENT. THEY ALL SEEM
TO BE KEYING RATHER HEAVILY ON THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE GULF MOVING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY AND INHIBITING COVERAGE. THIS WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

HOWEVER THINK THAT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MID JUNE SOLAR
HEATING...AND THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOCUSING SEABREEZE
CONVERGENCE E OF THE FL TURNPIKE WILL OVERCOME THIS DRIER AIR AND
HAVE KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO AT 30-40 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-4 AND INLAND
FROM THE TREASURE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE ROBUST TODAY AS A TROUGH SWING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC...PROVIDING FOR A QUICKER MOVEMENT TO THE BREVARD AND
INDIAN RIVER COASTS IN THE LATE EVENING.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH A VERY LATE...IF ANY SEABREEZE NORTH OF
MELBOURNE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

WED...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS S FL WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH FROM SRN GA TWD THE FL-GA BORDER. E CENTRAL FL WILL
REMAIN IN LOW LVL SW FLOW AHEAD NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. GFS/NAM IN
AGREEMENT THAT OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST WILL BE MOST
FAVORED FOR PRECIP AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PCT THERE. KEPT MID
SCATTERED RANGE POPS FURTHER NORTH WHERE LATE DAY MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH AND INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HIGHS AROUND 90 COASTAL TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR.

THU...ECMWF MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS INDICATES
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REACH NRN SECTIONS WITH LOW LVL SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MOST FAVORED ACROSS NRN
INTERIOR SECTIONS. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOCUS SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...LEADING TO HIGHER COVERAGE
FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY NORTHWARD. HIGHS UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AT THE
COAST AND LOWER 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

FRI-MON...LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME SE ON FRIDAY WITH ECMWF
INDICATING DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL FL. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP 30 POPS SE CSTL SECTIONS AND 40 PCT FOR INTERIOR AND NORTH. THE
GFS STILL HINTS AT THE NRN EXTENSION OF AN EASTERLY WAVE AFFECTING
SRN FL SAT-SAT NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF BY SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP POPS HIGHER SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR N CSTL SECTIONS WHERE SE FLOW
SHOULD PUSH E COAST BRZ INLAND. FOR SUNDAY...THINK SRN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS SHOWS
STRONGER ESE LOW LVL MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYER DRYING COMPLIMENTS OF
THE MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE SE ATLC COAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO 20-30 PCT NEXT MONDAY AND FOR THE PRELIM NEW DAY7 WILL ALSO TREND
LOWER THAN GUID (SLGT CHC/20 PCT)WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LVL ESE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 10Z...LINGERING -SHRA MOVING OFFSHORE BETWEEN
KTIX AND KVRB WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS FL020-030. 10Z-16Z...LCL MVFR
MIST AROUND DAYBREAK IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED
RAINFALL. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR UNDER SW FLOW WITH CU DEVELOPING
FL030-050. 16Z-20Z...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FROM KTIX SOUTH WITH VERY LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT OF SEA
BREEZE. AFTER 20Z...SCT TSRA ON WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH KLEE AND ORLANDO METRO AIRPORTS COLLIDING WITH EAST
COAST SEABREEZE AROUND KDAB-KOBE.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTH
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE KEEPING A PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
10-15KTS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BACK MORE
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. STORM SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE CAPE BRINGING WINDS UP TO A SOLID 15-18KTS OVERNIGHT.

WAVE WATCH SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...SO
WILL CAP SEAS AT SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE. SCT
SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE CONTINUES WITH STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.

S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME SE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS MAINLY 3
FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO AROUND 4 FT OFFSHORE. STORMS MAY AFFECT THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THU. SE FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND SHOULD FAVOR INLAND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...MELBOURNE TIED ANOTHER WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
MONDAY JUNE 17TH AT 78 DEGREES.

SANFORD AIRPORT RECORDED 2.96 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE CALENDAR
DAY OF MONDAY JUNE 17TH. MOST OF THE RAIN FELL BETWEEN 2AM AND 5AM
AND AGAIN LAST EVENING BETWEEN 9 PM AND 11 PM. ONLY .14 INCHES FELL
DURING THE `DAYTIME` HOURS BETWEEN 8 AM AND 8 PM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  73  91  74 /  30  30  40  30
MCO  93  74  93  73 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  91  75  90  75 /  30  30  40  30
VRB  90  75  89  75 /  20  30  50  30
LEE  94  75  93  75 /  30  20  40  20
SFB  94  75  94  75 /  40  30  40  20
ORL  93  75  94  76 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  89  74  89  74 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER