Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 270704 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 300 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. STRATO CU CLOUDS WILL FINALLY ERODE SOME EARLY TODAY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE A LOW MOVING IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW BUT THE NAM IS TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON THIS TRACK. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS THE LOW IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CHA AREA LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. THE LOW THEN TRACKS INTO THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SPREADING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY... BRINGING LIKELY POPS FARTHER NORTH. AN UPPER LOW DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...CONTINUING A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS LOW EXITS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 47 70 52 / 0 10 40 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 42 67 48 / 0 10 10 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 64 43 67 48 / 0 10 10 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 37 65 45 / 10 0 10 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SON/MJB

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