Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 270738 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 338 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MID-MORNING. A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS... GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES... GENERALLY FROM COCKE TO MONROE COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THERE. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS END WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADVECTION OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AFTER A FREEZE SATURDAY MORNING /WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF ALONG THE MOUNTAINS/...THE SKY WILL CLEAR OFF QUICKLY AS THE FIRST TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION. THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. THEN...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT /ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM A SECOND PASSING SHORTWAVE/ WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREAWIDE. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 31 49 28 / 10 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 27 44 25 / 30 40 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 27 44 26 / 40 30 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 26 39 21 / 30 30 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK- GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX- LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER- NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE- SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE- EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS- JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT- NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE- SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT- WASHINGTON. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.