Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 180753 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 350 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AND CUT OFF...WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS STILL EXIST WITH THE GFS STILL WANTING TO THROW MORE PRECIP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD AN ECMWF/NAM/SREF BLEND AND CARRY SIGNIFICANT POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BUT MINIMAL POPS TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. PRECIP AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH...AND NO THUNDER EXPECTED GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY. MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE OVERALL SO WILL STAY CLOSE. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT TOO FAR APART ON EXPECTED WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON SATURDAY THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LOW DRIFTS EVER SO SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 12Z SUNDAY. MAINTAINED A TIGHT POP GRADIENT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS BUT SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWER ACTION BY A FEW HOURS. WOULD EXPECT RISING MOTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SINKING MOTION WEST. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. RIDGING FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR SUNDAY AND THEN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY BUILDS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY PERHAPS GENERATING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM GENERATING RAIN SO KEPT POPS RATHER LOW. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO PROGGED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY DRY ADVECTION SO WAS ABLE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 48 69 49 / 20 20 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 48 70 47 / 10 20 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 47 70 48 / 10 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 45 68 45 / 10 20 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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