Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 260703 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 303 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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High pressure across the eastern Tennessee Valley early this morning is promoting a mostly clear sky and calm conditions. To the west a weak stationary front remains draped across Middle TN...northern Al...and Northwest GA. Over the course of the day...this feature will slowly retreat to the north and east into our area...bringing with it additional cloud cover and some chances isolated for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Before this activity develops...the mostly clear sky this morning should allow the atmosphere to warm up into the low to mid 90s once again...with a few spots even reaching the upper 90s by the mid afternoon over the Southern Valley. Over the course of the afternoon...clouds will increase as convection develops. The main focus of this activity will be along the Cumberland Plateau...Great Smoky Mountains...and the far Southern Valley...and Southwest NC. Later this evening and overnight...this activity will become more widespread as the front retreats closer to the I-75 corridor. Thus...steadily increased PoPs areawide into the 40 to 50 percent range by late tonight to account for this. Given the progged instability...a few strong could become strong with gusty winds...but the primary impact will be locally heavy downpours due to the weak organization with this activity. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For Monday...Upper ridge breaks down for Monday as upper troughing builds over the Great Lakes. A frontal boundary will move into the area for Monday afternoon and evening...but overall upper forcing is limited with jet remaining north of the area. Airmass will be moist and unstable...especially across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Overall..good coverage of storms anticipated. High PWs and CAPE (MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/Kg) will produce some strong to possibly severe storms north. Damaging winds and heavy rains will be the main concern. WBZ will be pretty high which will limit hail potential. A short-wave within Great Lakes/Northeast upper trough will swing across the area for Tuesday afternoon and evening...along with another frontal bounday...keeping chances of showers and thunderstorms going...especially northeast sections. Frontal boundary will pull south of the area for Wednesday through Friday...but inverted trough will be near the spine of the Appalachians. Model soundings show airmass quite a bit drier. However...best moist and instability over west North Caroline to keep slight PoPs near the TN/NC stateline. A weakening frontal boundary moves into the region for Saturday...so better coverage of convection expected.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 73 90 72 / 30 40 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 72 87 69 / 20 40 60 60 Oak Ridge, TN 93 72 87 70 / 10 50 60 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 67 85 67 / 10 30 60 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. TN...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ AMP/DH

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