Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 270542 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 142 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Forecast on track this evening with little to no changes. Clouds are clearing from west to east and precip is coming to and end. Only minor changes to hourly dewpoints and temps in order to match up with latest obs. Patchy fog likely through the night. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Key Messages: 1. Rain will move out from west to east and diminish during the evening hours. 2. Clearing skies from southwest to northeast Wednesday. Near average highs in the 60s to about 70. Discussion: Late this afternoon winds are still strong out of the southeast ahead of a cold front moving into middle Tennessee. The strong southeast flow will gradually diminish this afternoon and evening. Have just cancelled the High Wind Warning with gusts now less than about 40 mph in the eastern Tennessee mountains. Showers and a possible thunderstorm will continue a few more hours into the evening before shifting eastward. Overnight through the early morning hours Wednesday the front will move through with the deeper moisture shift to the east. Some additional increase in the showers could form ahead of the front. Which is occurring near the plateau at mid afternoon. Coverage is expected to be limited and intensity not any stronger than the showers that moved through earlier. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Winds are starting to shift to the southwest along the plateau. Temperatures at mid afternoon have been fairly steady in the mid to upper 50s. With the rain ending there will be some fog forming late as clouds thin. It does look like low level moisture will be slow to clear as the front should not clear the forecast area until Wednesday morning. After low clouds and fog Wednesday morning expect sunshine peeking through the clouds by late morning west and possibly later northeast. Should be partly cloudy by afternoon everywhere. Temperatures Wednesday will be near to slightly above normal in the 60s to near 70. Winds will be from the north to northwest. Relative humidity values will drop to around 40 percent so no fire weather concerns. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Key Messages: 1. Cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday night with frost/freeze potential across some areas. 2. An upper level system will bring unsettled weather and warmer temperatures for next week. Discussion: Much drier air will be in place Thursday into Friday as a trough axis moves through the Eastern US and surface high pressure settles in from the west. Lows will fall back into the 30`s to lower 40`s with clear skies and light winds. Upper level ridging begins to break down this weekend with high pressure moving off into the western Atlantic. Southerly return flow will quickly bring back warmer temperatures with highs in the 60`s to 70`s. A boundary will develop to the north Sunday and Monday resulting in an increase in cloud cover and potentially some rain showers across northern portions of the area. Confidence remains low in the synoptic details for midweek. The general consensus is that a trough will move out of the west resulting in an area of low pressure that will develop across the plains and lift NE. Unsettled weather will return for next week with increasing rain and storm chances and above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS) Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 The main aviation impact into the early morning hours will be patchy dense fog, which has been ongoing most significantly at TYS. Continued fog development is expected at CHA and to a lesser degree at TRI. It is unclear how low the categories will go, but LIFR or less is possible at all of the sites. By daybreak, the fog and low clouds will lift with winds gradually shifting to a westerly direction. Some mid/high clouds are expected as well.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 43 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 41 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 66 40 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 39 57 34 / 0 10 10 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM....Diegan AVIATION...BW

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