Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 161900
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...NOT MUCH CONVECTION AS OF THIS
WRITING BUT SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE PLATEAU BEING WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING WET THAN ELSEWHERE. ONLY 20 PCT POPS THIS
EVENING IN THE VALLEY. BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL ONLY GO UP STARTING
FRIDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH WILL
SLOWLY MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS HERE. INCREASED CHANCES
OF ...MOSTLY... DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH
ANOTHER WET WEEKEND. THAT`S RIGHT. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WE WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETAIL TO
MAKE TIMING OF CONVECTION A CHALLENGE. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...WARM...MOIST AND WEAKLY TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. A BROAD WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH THEN A LOW
MOVING THROUGH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH PERIOD. CURRENT MODEL RUNS POINT
TO SATURDAY AS BEING OUR BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS
AND LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE AT A DRY PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES IN AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             61  82  63  81  64 /  20  50  30  50  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  60  82  61  80  62 /  20  40  40  60  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  82  61  80  62 /  20  40  40  60  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  82  57  78  59 /  20  40  40  60  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

GC/MJB
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