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000
FXUS64 KMRX 200739
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
339 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS..ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG..SOME LOCALLY DENSE.

UPPER LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING.
WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FOCUSING THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EAST KENTUCKY INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. DUE TO
CONTINUED HIGH PWS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BESIDES THE HEAVY RAIN..ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH.

ELSEWHERE TODAY...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT NOT ENOUGH CIN TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. WILL
CALL FOR ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION FOCUSING ON
THE LOCAL TERRAIN. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO BE CONCERN OF
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS..AS WELL AS
MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR TONIGHT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG. SOME LOCALLY DENSE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER SLOWLY EASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WED
AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT/MORNING. ANOTHER SHOT OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW DAYS OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  66  90  67  85 /  10  10  20  20  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  65  88  66  83 /  20  10  20  20  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  65  87  66  83 /  20  20  20  20  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  57  85  60  82 /  40  20  30  20  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$