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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMRX 250458
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1258 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The forecast for tonight generally looks to be on track. Will just
make a few tweaks mainly to hourly temps and dew points as well as
sky cover with this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Key Messages:

Skies will continue to clear into the evening, with possibly
patchy fog early in the morning.

Discussion:

Rain has moved well east of the mountains today leaving behind it
sunnier skies and a shallow cumulus field in its wake. With more
solar radiation making it to the surface temperatures are well on
their way to get right around seasonal normals this afternoon.
Heading into the overnight hours expect the skies to continue to
clear out letting temperatures drop about 10 degrees colder than
last night. We could see some very patchy fog in the valleys and
wind sheltered areas that don`t completely dry out from the
morning showers. However widespread dense fog is not expected at
this time. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow
with the continued trend of quiet skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Key Messages:

1. Low rain chances Friday as a warm front moves through the region.

2. Breezy southwesterly winds Friday through Saturday. Otherwise,
dry and warm conditions forecast over the weekend.

3. A chance of showers and thunderstorms return early next week.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the region on Friday. At the
surface, a strong low is over Nebraska on Friday supported by a
closed low aloft. The cold front with this system remains well to
the west of the Mississippi River on Friday. The warm front ahead of
this system will be moving through the forecast region on Friday
bringing a slight chance for rain throughout the day. Southwesterly
flow will increase bringing WAA and winds will be gusty by Friday
afternoon mainly in the higher elevations and the southern Tennessee
Valley where gusts will be in the 20 to 30 mph range. Dew points
will creep into the 50s by Friday afternoon but instability will
likely be too low for thunder.

Saturday and Sunday look dry with the cold front from the
aforementioned system stalling and weakening near the Mississippi
River. Ridging and high pressure will be over the Southeast and our
region. Breezy southerly winds will continue Friday night and
Saturday. Gusts may be borderline advisory criteria (40 mph) Friday
night in the higher elevations and foothills of the East Tennessee
Mountains with a wind direction favorable for downslope wind
enhancement.

Monday and Tuesday, a low will be moving through the Great Lakes
with a healthy trough extending through the Midwest, Ohio Valley and
into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. The cold front will
move through the region with the best chance for showers and storms
Monday night and Tuesday (for now).

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Only adjustment from previous TAF was to throw mention of fog in a
tempo group given low confidence. TRI still seems to be primary
site for concern of reduced visibility through the morning. Recent
sfc obs suggest dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s creeping
into SW VA and NE TN. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected with
light winds. Some high clouds will advect into the region for the
latter half of the cycle.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Chattanooga Airport, TN             78  58  78  63 /   0  10  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  75  52  74  61 /   0  10  20   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       76  52  74  61 /   0  10  20   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              70  47  70  55 /   0   0  20  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...KRS