000
FXUS64 KMRX 191336
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY STRETCHING GENERALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WEST OF IT (OVER MIDDLE TN
AND NORTHERN AL) AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA RADARS REVEAL SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...WITH SOME TRAINING CELLS OVER MARION COUNTY
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS VERY HUMID SUMMER-LIKE AIR
MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION TODAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS
REVEAL A MODERATELY TO HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING TODAY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED NEAR THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FAIRLY WARM MID LEVEL LAYER MAY KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING CONVECTION.

HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO BEEF UP THE
WORDING FOR TODAY SOME MORE...AND WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THE ZONE
FORECASTS THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ANY MORNING PRECIP WORDING AND TO
TWEAK TEMPS A LITTLE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   82  65  88  66  89 /  70  30  20  10  20
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     80  64  87  65  88 /  70  50  20  10  30
OAK RIDGE, TN             80  64  87  65  88 /  60  40  20  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    78  61  85  60  86 /  70  60  30  10  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG