000
FXUS64 KMRX 181415
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1015 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WESTERN KY...WITH A WARM AND HUMID SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. AREA RADARS REVEAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA THIS MORNING...WHICH WERE OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO AND TN RIVER
VALLEYS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY...WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM MODEL ONLY REVEALS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE GFS MODEL INDICATES SOME
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DUE TO ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPS. IF
THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES...THINK THAT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THUS...WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO THE
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL UPDATE
THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ANY MORNING PRECIP WORDING AND TO TWEAK TEMPS
A LITTLE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN    80  64  82  64  89 /  80  60  60  30  10
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN      78  63  81  63  87 /  90  60  60  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN              78  64  80  63  87 /  90  60  60  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN     75  58  77  58  85 /  90  70  70  40  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG