000
FXUS64 KMRX 150826
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
426 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE HOLD FOR
TODAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY ON TAP. GFS
MOS MAX TEMPS LOOKED VERY GOOD AND ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES WARMER
FROM FRIDAY`S HIGHS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS SE AND MAY ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. 850 MB RH
GENERALLY INCREASES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WON`T INCREASE UNTIL SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
GFS MOS MINS WERE CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AS IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MS VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TN
VALLEY AND FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATE MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. STILL KEEPING WEDNESDAY DRY. FRONT DOES NOT
MAKE IT FAR SOUTH AND SHOULD WASH OUT BY THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS BACK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMING
BACK NORTH. HIGHS SUNDAY AGAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  67  89  70  85 /   0   0  20  30  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  65  88  68  83 /   0   0  20  40  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  65  87  67  82 /   0   0  20  40  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  58  85  63  83 /   0   0  30  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/TD