000
FXUS64 KMRX 171915
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND
MEMPHIS...WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA RADARS REVEAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME TSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
THEN WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT A MARGINALLY TO POTENTIALLY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT
THE SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS...SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/EASTERN LOCATIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
MODELS SLOWING THIS FEATURE. WILL LEAVE HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY...
BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD IF THE
SLOWING TREND CONTINUES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   62  78  63  81  64 /  70  80  60  50  20
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     61  78  62  80  63 /  60  80  60  60  30
OAK RIDGE, TN             62  78  63  80  64 /  60  80  60  60  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    58  76  59  77  60 /  50  80  60  60  40
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB