000
FXUS64 KMRX 140745
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
345 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS SW VA/NE TN
AND COUNTIES ALONG THE TN-NC LINE. ADDED OUR SW NC COUNTIES PLUS ERN
PARTS OF POLK AND MONROE COUNTIES TO THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIP EAST AND ALLOW A SW GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN MUCH MILDER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...WHICH
FAVORS THE NAM MOS MINS OVER THE COOLER GFS MOS. EXPECTING MAX TEMPS
TODAY TO BE ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY.


.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY... PROMOTING SOME OF THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SPRING AS THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY/. WHILE THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS INTACT LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK...SOME GULF MOISTURE
WILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-WAVES THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.
THIS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION WILL GIVEN THE REGION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BETTER CHANCES MAY BE IN
STORE FOR MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MODEL FLUCTUATIONS THAT FAR OUT... OPTED TO BE
CAUTIOUS ON RAISING POPS TOO HIGH ATTM. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S DURING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  57  86  59  82 /   0   0  10  10  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  59  85  60  80 /   0   0  10  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  57  85  59  80 /   0   0  10  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              75  50  83  54  78 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     EAST POLK...HANCOCK...HAWKINS...JOHNSON...NORTHWEST
     CARTER...NORTHWEST GREENE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...
     SULLIVAN...UNICOI...WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.


&&

$$

TG/AMP